Trump said yesterday that he would impose tariffs on Europe, leading to a sharp drop in BTC. Currently, it is undergoing a Bollinger Bands 8-hour level pullback, which is stabilizing after falling. Yesterday on Weibo, I reminded that Bitcoin's recent rise was nearing its end, and right after, the market dropped by 5,000 points with significant volume, initially validating my view. After posting on Weibo, I found a position to short at 111,298, with a take-profit price of 108,644, making a profit of 305%. Fans who saw my Weibo yesterday likely made a fortune from shorting.
After taking profits on shorts, the sponge quickly noticed that Bitcoin was approaching the oversold area on the hourly level. At the stock market opening, it held the key support at 108,400 USD. They decisively went long and ate up the rebound, with a single long position making a profit of 171%! This operation perfectly illustrates the textbook-style game of 'both sides profit', showcasing the judgment and decisiveness at a crucial moment, which is the intuition of experienced traders.
Bitcoin's spike pullback; should we panic? No, it is actually a 'technical deep squat' in the bull market.
The overall upward trend of Bitcoin remains robust. This round of correction seems more like a technical adjustment within the rhythm of the bull market. A single-day drop of 4% is not uncommon during an upward cycle, and true bulls should not be easily washed out. If we must find a 'bearish' reason for this correction, you could say it is:
1️⃣ Trump issued a tariff threat, increasing market risk aversion.
2️⃣ Prices have risen for several days, and momentum needs to be briefly released.
3️⃣ 'Dog holders' are suspected of targeting on-chain large holders—rumors say a certain address with over 1 billion USD in assets is being watched.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently undergoing a corrective pullback in a 4-hour upward trend. Last night, there was a sharp drop in volume, which temporarily broke the short-term structure. Currently, it has rebounded to near the previous high where it is facing resistance. If it cannot recover above 108,600, it may continue to test the key support level of 106,000 USD. Additionally, it is worth noting that since Bitcoin's 4-hour 'Vegas tunnel golden cross', there has never been an effective retest. If this adjustment continues, the 102,000-104,000 USD region may become an ideal accumulation position, which is the 'pullback entry opportunity' that trend traders dream of.
If Bitcoin's pullback scenario unfolds: currently, there will be obvious support at 103, and after a period of sideways movement, it will directly accelerate to break below 100,000, drop to 98, then quickly recover, ultimately forming a long oscillation period between 98-115.
This weekend, the Bitcoin market may stage a game of 'sniper soldier James'. Bulls and bears are fiercely contending over key support levels. If BTC cannot effectively hold above 108,000 USD, the market may shift into a large range oscillation mode, triggering deep washouts and directional choices.
But if Bitcoin successfully holds the key level and does not get smashed into a wide fluctuation zone, then 'James' might escape this round of precise targeting and weather the storm. In other words, if it stays above 108, James is safe; if it falls below 108, the slaughter has only just begun.
Ethereum is trapped at a critical juncture, with the daily level struggling to stabilize at the $2800 bullish-bearish dividing line.
Currently, ETH has attempted to rebound, but it has not been able to firmly stand above $2800 on the daily level, and this bullish-bearish dividing line still suppresses the market's upward movement. On-chain data shows that about 3.9 million ETH are in a state of floating loss and are nearing the edge of being unbound, forming a 'high position trapped wall' on the road to recovery. With heavy pressure and dense selling pressure above, if no new incremental funds enter the market, Ethereum may continue to be trapped in a consolidation zone, and the pace of the bull market will also be significantly slowed down.
However, currently ETH is accumulating in the $2,530-$2,640 range, indicating that funds are willing to accumulate chips at this position.
(1) On May 22, funds increased their holdings at $2,538, raising the amount of chips at that position from 900,000 to 1,530,000.
(2) Whales that built positions around $3,600 in December 2024 have been adding to their holdings as the price has been falling, and their current average cost is around $2,574, holding a total of 1.94 million ETH; these should all be steadfast ETH holders.
From on-chain data, the low-position chips distributed in the $1,500, $1,600, and $1,800 ranges remain highly stable, showing no obvious signs of reduction, indicating that the market still has confidence in ETH's future. This part of the long-term holdings, referred to as 'resilient chips', is becoming an important energy pool for ETH's upward breakthrough. If BTC continues to maintain a high-level consolidation, the market focus may very well shift to ETH, at which point Ethereum could welcome its 'catch-up rally' moment. Will it be the performance time for ETH at last? We shall wait and see.
Altcoins are declining collectively; is an opportunity brewing?
Recently, most of the altcoins that rebounded have given back their gains, and the short-term market sentiment has turned from hot to cold. However, truly strong projects can still hold their ground—just refer to a key indicator: whether they have held above the daily K-line low on May 22.
From the current trend, tokens like NXPC, BGB, JUP, and SAGA have not yet broken this support level, showing strong resilience in the short term and representing relatively strong altcoins at present.
A decline is not an absolute bear signal; rather, it marks the beginning of a 'big sale' of quality chips. Market fluctuations release panic, which is the best time for 'smart money' to accumulate positions.
📌 Current strategy suggestions:
Gradually bottom-fishing and building positions, treating this market as a 'mini bear market'.
If worried about volatility risks, adopting a dollar-cost averaging approach may be the way to navigate through cycles.
Opportunities hide in the quiet; whether you can seize them depends on whether you have a bit more patience and faith than others.
On-chain
$B
$B rebounded sharply after being panicked by false news last night, and those who believed it profited greatly. Today, worldlibertyfi's people woke up and everything was as usual, USD1 continued to play music and dance.
BSC currently has the strongest consensus meme that launched immediately, with backing from the Trump family and deeply tied to USD1. The combination of political narrative and retail sentiment is fully charged. Now, USD1 is opening for trading on Binance's main battlefield, and the rise of $B has directly ignited the actual usage demand for on-chain USD1, propelling it to become the new core narrative of the BSC ecosystem. You can understand it this way: the rise of $B is like advertising for USD1, encouraging more project parties to connect to the USD1 liquidity pool, making this stablecoin truly 'come to life'. Now is the critical emotional peak, and on-chain recovery is taking place; the next explosive point may already be brewing.
$Jager
After enduring the final selling pressure from LPs, the coin price has remained strong. The 22nd-23rd is the last batch of LPs participating in mining from the 2 pools, so when the market found that the selling pressure had ended, it immediately began a violent rebound, almost doubling at one point. Yesterday, CZ retweeted a post about Bnbchain data that also mentioned $Jager, which, although it may have just been a casual mention, still led to widespread dissemination, indirectly showing that the community knows how to play.
