原文:Major brokerages and news media feature technical analysis - By David H Bailey

1. Disagreements and unclear definitions

There is no clear, publicly acknowledged consensus, especially when the rules for chart reading and interpretation are themselves ambiguous

2. The researcher investigates those who use technical analysts and cannot verify that the data analysis is effective.

27 admitted to using technical analysts as an important part of their analysis. So how do these 27 technical analysts fare? Their average accuracy score was 44.1% - lower than the average among the 68

3. Multiple studies have pointed out that technical analysis cannot be verified to be effective.

Market analyst Laszlo Birinyi bluntly declared in an interview in his book "The Heretics of Finance"

The truth is, technical analysis doesn’t work in the markets

4. Multiple testing errors and cherry-picking bias

Technical analysts can cite success stories, but how “real” are these, statistically speaking?

5. Basic considerations in modern high-tech markets

  • Large quantitative financial institutions use highly complex mathematical algorithms. Any effective strategies will be quickly imitated by other programs in other organizations, and the "advantages" will quickly disappear.

  • Advocates of technical analysis would have us believe that highly complex computer programs somehow miss some simple, fundamental solution

  • A laptop, a drawing program, and a few simple tools can routinely exploit these opportunities to generate reliable above-market-average profits

  • It is obvious that there cannot be any such simple solution

Once, when I started recruiting at [a hedge fund], it was common and acceptable for candidates to brag about their technical analysis skills.

Now, at every company I've worked for, this would probably disqualify them on the spot. When I spoke with a group of active investment managers recently, I saw a similar shift in a constructive direction.