Bitcoin price is slowing down at its historical high, and the market clearly isn't ready for a rapid surge.
Bitcoin has officially broken through the $111,000 mark, setting a new historical high. However, despite achieving this technical milestone, the overall market reaction has been relatively muted. Compared to the euphoric rebounds driven by excitement in 2021 or the parabolic rise in 2017, the recent surge feels more like a slow grind rather than an explosive rise. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is still on a strong upward trend. The 50-day EMA is currently well above the 200-day EMA, confirming the formation of a golden cross. Momentum continues to remain strong above the $102,000 resistance level, with trading volume gradually increasing. However, upon closer inspection, signs of excessive price expansion can be observed. The price has moved far from the short-term moving averages, and the RSI indicator has entered the overbought territory at 77, suggesting a possible impending pullback.
Despite breaking the historical highest price, the lack of significant capital inflow is more telling. In previous cycles, breaking the historical highest price usually leads to a surge in buying from both institutional and retail investors. This time, rather than a fresh influx of liquidity into the market, it appears to be more of a rotation of existing funds and a squeeze of shorts. Bitcoin's recent sharp rise has benefited from $239 million in short liquidations, but without new buyers entering the market, this momentum may not be sustainable.
In this case, the historical highest price is more of a psychological factor rather than a market determinant. While it confirms a long-term bullish structure, it has not triggered the type of rebound driven by 'fear of missing out' (FOMO) that we have witnessed in past cycles. In the absence of this catalyst, short-term upside potential may be limited.
Before the next round of increases, Bitcoin may need to cool off. If a pullback occurs, falling toward the breakout range of $101,000 to $102,000 would not be surprising, as this could provide a more solid support for Bitcoin's long-term rise. Before actual capital inflow rebounds, new historical highs are more of a checkbox than a feast.
Shiba Inu Reborn
After weeks of turmoil, Shiba Inu (SHIB) is showing signs of recovery momentum. This meme-inspired asset has strongly rebounded from the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicating possible momentum shift signs. Following the subsequent rise, SHIB has regained the $0.0000150 mark, a short-term psychological barrier. This important support level remains firm. Even more encouraging is the performance of the 26-day EMA, which is currently curling upward and closely following the price action.
This is a technical indicator suggesting that buyers are regaining control of the market, short-term sentiment is improving, and it usually signals the start of a momentum expansion phase. If this pattern persists, SHIB may struggle to reclaim the 200 EMA, which is currently at the resistance level near $0.000016.
Successfully breaking the 200-day EMA will confirm that the asset is back in a mid-term upward trend. However, traders should be cautious, as a double top could form. If the volume is insufficient to sustain further increases, the previous high of $0.000017 may become a resistance level, and failure to break through could lead to a pullback to the 100-day EMA.
The current rebound seems more like a technical pullback rather than an exhilarating breakout, as the volume remains lower compared to previous breakouts. However, if SHIB can attract enough buying pressure to break above the 200-day EMA, the upward momentum may accelerate.
Dogecoin Pullback
As Dogecoin rebounds to the critical $0.30 level, it is once again determined to reclaim lost ground. Dogecoin has decisively broken through the downward trend line, which often signals the end of the pullback phase and may initiate a rebound after a period of consolidation and a significant pullback from previous highs. Dogecoin is facing a crucial test at the $0.25 level, which has historically been a strong resistance level, and the current trading price is close to $0.24.
A significant breakout in trading volume may push the price up to the $0.28-$0.30 range, which could constitute a structural and psychological upper limit. From a technical perspective, this setup looks promising. The 26-day exponential moving average converges with the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, signaling a potential momentum expansion phase. When this pattern is accompanied by a clear breakout, such as the descending wedge that Dogecoin has just broken through, this convergence often heralds the start of a stronger bullish trend.
However, traders should exercise caution. If Dogecoin fails to break through and hold the $0.25 resistance level, a double top could still form. This could lead to an immediate drop back to the 100-day EMA or support around $0.21. Recent rising market volumes have steadily increased, indicating that investor interest is returning but has not yet reached levels that would trigger a frenzied buying spree.
