Hypothesis: Bitcoin will go through another fork in the next 12-18mo, as the community once again asks the question: should the chain remain untouched or should it evolve?
Bitcoin Knots, the client software that helps miners block "spammy" transactions, is currently witnessing their usage surge to over 10% in the last few months as miners say no to validating transactions with discounted storage (as introduced by SegWit).
According to Peter Todd, Bitcoin needs a a soft fork to accomplish the goal of properly blocking "spam" (https://t.co/FTFAI3TbUd) but my hunch is that this ends up stirring a larger debate about:
- who really controls Bitcoin today
- what actual Bitcoin holders want from the protocol moving forward
- what are the mechanisms by which the community finds social consensus while crossing the chasm to institutional/nation-state adoption
It's still unclear to me how exactly this ends, but honestly I couldn't be more excited to watch it unfold again. Evolve or repeat!