The big pancake broke through its historical high last night. Up until now, various data has been released. On the surface, it looks strong, but I have hidden concerns:
(Note that this is not a bearish signal, but a reminder to be prepared for potential downside.)
1️⃣ The breakthrough happened without volume, and the trading volume is even smaller than in previous days, unlike the usual 'explosive volume confirmation' structure of a main upward trend;
2️⃣ The funding rate is still low, contract sentiment is tepid, and while CVD has risen, it is not explosive;
3️⃣ The pullback after last night's drop has exaggerated the decline in spot premiums.
(Note that the funds driving BTC and the funds driving altcoins are two separate waves of capital.)
The historical high should be the market's heaviest resistance zone. If the breakthrough does not rely on volume for endorsement, it could be a false breakout.
I prefer to view it as slow growth, building momentum, rather than a stable trend.
The structure hasn't broken down, and the trend hasn't turned bearish;
but without volume, I won't pursue high positions in the mid-cycle. At least for this week, we need to observe.