Bitcoin’s SOPR data shows restrained profit-taking as both short and long-term holders sustain positions, hinting at a maturing bull market.
James Wynn’s strategic BTC trades show market-timing precision, but his $1.07B long position reflects strong bullish confidence.
El Salvador’s treasury gains 132% with zero realized profits, showcasing an unwavering commitment to Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential.
Bitcoin’s sustained price above $100,000 has yet to trigger the euphoric selling typical of cycle tops, according to SOPR analysis shared by Alphractal. Both short-term and long-term holders continue to resist liquidating positions, a pattern last seen in mid-to-late 2021, suggesting the market may still be in its expansion phase.
https://twitter.com/Alphractal/status/1925220394799161492
As reported by Alphractal, analysts pointed to the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) as evidence of this restraint. Short-term SOPR peaked at 1.3 earlier in 2024 but has since stabilized near 1.2 despite Bitcoin’s breakout above $110,000. Historically, sharp increases in SOPR have marked aggressive profit-taking, such as during the $65K and $69K tops in 2021, but that behavior remains absent in current trading.
Long-term holder SOPR confirms the same subdued tone. Though it rose above 1.4 during the most recent leg of the rally, volatility has been limited. This contrasts sharply with the 2021 bull run, where similar levels were accompanied by steep corrections. From 2012 to 2025, SOPR values above 1 have historically tracked bull market momentum, while prolonged dips below 1 signaled capitulation. As of May 21, 2025, SOPR remains above 1 across all timeframes, with no bearish divergence in sight.
High-Stakes Traders Echo SOPR’s Calm Trend
While SOPR suggests a broader market, some high-leverage traders are locking in profits at strategic intervals. According to a report by Lookonchain, prominent trader James Wynn closed 540 BTC worth $60 million on May 22, securing $1.5 million in realized gains. Yet, Wynn’s largest position, 9,659 BTC, opened at $108,065 using 40x leverage, remains intact and highly profitable.
Over the past week, Wynn has offloaded 12,510 BTC in four separate trades totaling $1.3 billion, aligning closely with local price highs. Lookonchain emphasized that each sell was followed by minor declines in price, suggesting Wynn’s timing is both deliberate and impactful. Despite this, he continues to hold more than $1.07 billion in leveraged BTCUSD exposure, reflecting ongoing bullish conviction.
Wallet data shows Wynn’s asset profile is aggressively skewed toward derivatives, with $87 million in perpetual contracts and another $3.8 million staked. A separate long in kPEPE-USD, entered at $0.009595, is now up over $6.8 million. Multiple BTC “Close Long” transactions and a new $297,000 kPEPE position further reflect high-frequency risk management, consistent with a market that remains directional but not euphoric.
Sovereign Behavior Reinforces Market’s Holding Pattern
Institutional-level accumulation strategies are mirroring this low-euphoria environment. CoinBureau reports that El Salvador’s national Bitcoin treasury has reached $677.8 million in value without a single coin sold. The portfolio now holds an unrealized gain of $386 million, up 132.35% from the $291.7 million invested since 2021.
The government’s Bitcoin holdings recovered from a $25.4 million low during the 2022 bear market to surpass $600 million by early 2025. Year-to-date performance shows a 17.13% gain, adding nearly $100 million in unrealized value. Crucially, the portfolio dashboard still lists “Ganancia realizada” at $0.00, confirming full commitment to a long-term, dollar-cost-averaging strategy.
The dashboard’s real-time metrics, color-coded to highlight growth, mirror the macro view from SOPR. Just as the indicator signals expansion without excess, El Salvador’s unwavering approach strengthens the broader narrative of a maturing market. No frenzied liquidation, no panic buying, just consistent upward movement, cautious profit-taking, and growing institutional alignment with Bitcoin’s long-term thesis.
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