"The longer the consolidation, the closer the breakout—ETH is repeatedly testing the $2600 mark, either gathering strength to break through, or facing a sharp drop."
1. Data calibration: Price and on-chain dynamics
Latest price: As of May 22, the current price of ETH is $2619.54 (user-provided candlestick chart data), with a daily decline of 0.34%, a 24-hour volatility of 1.7%, slightly retreating from yesterday's high of $2646.
On-chain withdrawals: In the past 30 days, over 1 million ETH (about $2.6 billion) has been withdrawn from exchanges, circulating supply sharply reduced, selling pressure eased, and long-term holding willingness increased.
Institutional movements: BlackRock's spot ETF has seen an inflow of $436 million in one day, setting a historical record, with large funds continuing to position themselves.
2. Long and short game: Technical and news aspects
Technical formation: Daily chart shows narrow fluctuations between $2600-$2646, 4-hour candlestick MACD is shrinking, RSI is neutral (around 50), with no clear short-term direction.
Key resistance: $2738 is a recent strong pressure point, breaking through requires huge capital; if it loses 2600, it may test $2400 (200-day moving average support).
Market sentiment: Bitcoin has broken above $110,000 (currently reported at $110,400), but ETH has not followed suit, with clear capital divergence, contract funding rates turning negative, and shorts slightly dominating.
Correction point: The original analysis of "bull market flag target of $3600" (page 4) was based on the perspective of May 21, with the current price not breaking through key resistance, so it needs to be paused for reference, prioritizing real-time candlestick data.
3. Operational strategy: Focus on two key signals
Short-term (1-3 days):
Breakthrough 2646: Lightly chase long positions, target 2738, stop loss 2590.
Break below 2600: Wait and see, if volume breaks down, it may test the 2500-2400 range.
Long-term:
Below 2400: Build positions in batches, betting on the approval of ETFs and the upgrade of Pectra dividends (staking yield rises to 8%-10%).
Risk warning:
Tonight, the U.S. PCE inflation data will be released; if it exceeds expectations, it may trigger a market correction.
Whale address activity (20,000 ETH transferred to exchanges), beware of sudden selling pressure.
"Consolidation is the calm before the storm—will you wait for ETH to skyrocket before making a move, or will you find a good entry point now?"
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