I. Arthur Hayes' 'Crazy Prediction': From a Late Summer Surge to an End-of-Year Explosion

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a legend in the crypto market, recently made a shocking statement in an interview with Bankless: Bitcoin might hit the $150,000 to $200,000 range before the end of summer, and after a deep correction, it could soar to $250,000 by the end of 2025. This prediction is based on his deep insights into the global macro economy, fiat liquidity, and market cycles.

In the current asset allocation of Hayes' family office, Maelstrom Fund, 60% is in Bitcoin, 20% in Ethereum, and the rest in gold, mining stocks, and government bonds, reflecting his long-term confidence in crypto assets. He believes the market is at a critical point of 'liquidity tightening' and 'policy shift', with Bitcoin likely to reflect this change first.

II. Short-term Correction: The 'Inevitable Path' of a 30% Drop

Despite being long-term bullish, Hayes emphasizes that Bitcoin must undergo a deep correction of around 30%, with prices potentially falling to the range of $70,000 to $75,000. Trigger factors include:

  1. Fiat liquidity tightening: Rising currency costs in the three major economies of the US, China, and Japan. If the 10-year Treasury yield breaks through 5%-6%, it may trigger a minor financial crisis.

  2. High leverage liquidation risk: Currently, Bitcoin contract positions exceed $50 billion. If the price breaks below critical support levels (such as $75,000), it could trigger a chain of liquidations, accelerating the decline.

  3. Geopolitical shocks: Recent US tariff policies and escalating trade friction have heightened market risk aversion, leading traditional funds to flow into assets like gold, suppressing the crypto market.

III. Long-term Logic: Liquidity Restart and Institutional Entry

After the correction, Hayes believes that Bitcoin will enter a stronger bull market, driven by core factors including:

  1. Central bank 'money printer' restart: The Federal Reserve may be forced to stop quantitative tightening (QT) and inject liquidity alongside multiple central banks, with Bitcoin rebounding first as 'anti-inflation hard currency'.

  2. Institutional funds are pouring in: Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin ETF net inflows may exceed $70 billion by 2025, with corporate-level allocations (like MicroStrategy, KULR Technology) continuing to expand.

  3. Halving cycle effect: After the halving in 2024, the supply contraction effect may become evident in the second half of 2025. Historical patterns indicate that 16-18 months post-halving is a peak price window.

IV. Ethereum and Altcoins: Opportunities in Diversification

Hayes holds a cautiously optimistic view on Ethereum: If it stands above $5,000 by year-end, it will restore market confidence, potentially pushing the bull market cycle to $10,000-$20,000. However, he emphasizes that ETH needs to break through technical resistance and ecological bottlenecks.

Regarding altcoins, he predicts that a 'new narrative' will dominate the market, and tokens with high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) and low circulation may be abandoned. DEX may see the emergence of speculative targets based on real use cases, such as SocialFi and RWA (Real World Assets), in cyclical resistance sectors.

V. Trading Strategy: Bottom-Fishing Signals and Risk Management

Hayes reveals that his current strategy is to hold more stablecoins (like USDe) and participate in staking, with an annual yield of 10%-20%, to retain bottom-fishing capital. He advises investors:

  1. Waiting for 'Liquidation Candles': After a 30% correction in Bitcoin, quality altcoins may plummet over 50%, presenting a good long-term positioning opportunity.

  2. Control leverage: Avoid high-multiplication contracts, prioritize dollar-cost averaging or diversifying into anti-dip assets (such as gold, RWA tokens).

  3. Focus on policy inflection points: Signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and progress on US crypto regulatory bills (such as the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act) may become catalysts for the market.

VI. Market Consensus: Is $250,000 Just the Starting Point?

Apart from Hayes, several institutions echo a bullish sentiment:

  • Bernstein: Bitcoin's target price for 2025 is $200,000, calling it the beginning of the 'Infinite Era'.

  • Standard Chartered: Long-term target price of $200,000, which may break the upper limit if regulations are relaxed or sovereign funds enter the market.

  • MicroStrategy founder: Bitcoin is the 'Digital Manhattan', with the ultimate goal potentially reaching one million dollars.

Conclusion: Capturing the 'Digital Inevitability' amid volatility

The volatility of Bitcoin has never changed its 'anti-inflation narrative' and 'decentralized value'. In 2025, the risks of global economic stagflation, a crisis of trust in fiat currency systems, and technological innovations intertwine, possibly leading Bitcoin to transform from a 'geek toy' to a 'Swiss Army Knife asset'. As Hayes puts it: 'Trading is not about right or wrong, but about the game of probability and expectation.' Investors must seize every wave of this epic bull market while balancing risk and opportunity.

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