Bitcoin surged to a new high of 110k today, but this rise seems to be dragging on, and the momentum is not strong. At around $107,000, the market has shown multiple divergences before, indicating that this is a key battleground point, with both bulls and bears currently in fierce competition. It is still uncertain whether this breakthrough will hold, and we may have to wait until tonight to see some clues. My view remains unchanged: even if Bitcoin creates a new high in the short term, it is likely to be a false breakout, and there may be a wave of liquidation for the bulls afterward.
Looking at Ethereum, it has not yet reached the $2600 mark, and above $2600 still poses strong resistance. I think it will be quite difficult for it to steadily break through $2800 or even $3000 in the short term.
Currently, the trading volume of BTC at a high position (above 100k) is less than one-third of the last bull market peak, not to mention the trading amount. In terms of market sentiment, if we don't look at the current price of Bitcoin, it clearly feels like a bear market atmosphere. I do not believe that this position is the top of the bull market; I am providing a thought process. BTC will have a pullback, then stabilize, and the subsequent crazy altcoin season will kick off with AI, then DeFi, then meme, then GameFi, and RWA, and finally the bankruptcy sector's doomsday vehicle series. After the rise, quickly sell off and run away. The upcoming altcoin season will explosively erupt, and choosing good varieties will see gains far exceeding BTC, making reasonable use of funds to match the rotation market.
Bitcoin is about to surge past the 150k mark! Four altcoins will explode 100 times in the upcoming market!
LINK
LINK is a currency that is parasitic on the rise of DeFi. It is a data provider; you can think of it as a data intermediary company that connects real-world data with on-chain data. We can imagine that the DeFi field must have a very large prospect, as everything such as staking, lending, and trading will rely on real information data.
Although LINK is not passively deflationary, its total supply is limited. As for use cases, there are many. Companies providing data must use LINK tokens, and projects accepting data must also provide LINK tokens. If the data provider's cost is high, then LINK will be confiscated. It can be said that it meets a large number of use cases and almost monopolizes the oracle market.
It can surpass the market value of UNI because it is truly useful and will continue to grow. On-chain lending transactions and data usage can easily reach a scale of $10 trillion in the future. Currently, the entire market is only $1 trillion. So based on these conditions, how much can LINK rise in this bull market? Personally, I believe it will start at 5 times.
EIGEN
The performance is still quite good, and this wave is expected to aim for a short-term new high. The basic logic behind why I am optimistic about EIGEN is that the current situation and strength of EIGEN do not match.
Currently, EIGEN's market capitalization ranks outside the top 100. In contrast, Chainlink's LINK market capitalization is 20 times that of EIGEN, and TAO is 7 times. After adjusting for FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation), both LINK and TAO are 5 times that of EIGEN.
However, Eigenlayer has become the third largest TVL (Total Value Locked) protocol, with a total locked amount of $10 billion, nearly approaching AAVE's $11 billion. Nevertheless, AAVE's market capitalization is still 2 times that of EIGEN. But if adjusted for TVL, AAVE is actually half the price of EIGEN. Therefore, in terms of on-chain data and the project's fundamentals, EIGEN's price is currently clearly undervalued.
BIO
Currently, it seems to be fine. Although the life sciences sector is heavily speculative, BIO has dropped too much from its high and will eventually rebound. A few days ago, everyone was bearish on altcoins, and I suggested some strategies to buy the dip on certain altcoins, which still bears some pressure.
The strategy I observed today is sound, and the directional judgment is basically correct. BSC did not perform much in the previous wave, but I think this wave should show good performance.
DOGE
The peak of DOGE in this round is unpredictable. DOGE has fallen from the previous peak of 0.48 to 0.13, a drop of 73%, close to the maximum drop in a bear market. The washout has been very thorough. From the high point in December last year to early May, it has been continuously declining for half a year, with a sufficient exchange of chips.
From mid-March to now, the trading volume has remained at an extremely low level. Although in May it rose from a low of 0.13 to 0.26, doubling in value, the trading volume did not significantly increase. From the perspective of trading volume, the market is still in a very early stage. This time, DOGE's trend is different from past bull markets, gathering strong energy, and the peak in this round is unpredictable!
