Analyze the future trend of Bitcoin:

This time Bitcoin surged rapidly from the bottom of 74,500 to break new highs. Generally, after Bitcoin experiences a period of consolidation and breaks new highs, going long is a good strategy, but there are still some macroeconomic and data factors that investors need to treat cautiously regarding Bitcoin's future.

If the upward momentum in the next few days is weak, then this might just be a local top for Bitcoin, rather than a step towards higher prices.

In the coming days, focus on tracking the following four dimensions to determine whether this surge is a buildup for another push or a temporary peak —

Whether ETF net inflows continue to increase

On May 19–20, spot BTC ETFs attracted over $600 million in a single day, setting a new high for the month; if inflows slow down or even turn negative, it often indicates that institutional marginal buying is cooling off.

Whether the positive premium and Funding Rate further increase

Currently, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts is nearing 9%, making "long positions more expensive"; if the rate continues to rise while spot trading volume does not keep up, it could trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations.

Macroeconomic sentiment: U.S. Treasury real yields & U.S. dollar liquidity

Before the Federal Reserve's June meeting, short-term real rates remain elevated; once there are signs of "diminished rate cut expectations + liquidity withdrawal," high Beta assets typically retract ahead of macroeconomic deterioration.

Trading volume, SOPR, net inflows to exchanges

If BTC challenges new highs again but is accompanied by a reduction in daily trading volume, SOPR above 1 turning down, while also observing an increase in net inflows from short-term holders to exchanges, this often signals "distribution" rather than "relay."