Many friends say that the current market situation is of hellish difficulty, how should we judge it? Actually, I feel that everyone finds it difficult, mainly because it's hard to assess the relationship between the 'overall market', individual assets, and market conditions. In the past, after BTC hit a new high, ETH would follow closely, and then the altcoins would come. But now, after $BTC hits a new high, $ETH and altcoins might not respond at all, and even after a pullback in BTC, they might directly hit historical lows.

In such a situation, you will find that both left-side trading and right-side trading are quite challenging. Buying altcoins on the left side might result in being stuck and never recovering the investment, but if you chase a breakout on the right side, the sustainability of the market is a mystery. Sometimes it’s a false breakout, and sometimes after a breakout, it sells off immediately. Only a very few assets under very few circumstances can achieve the standard three-wave dealer market, which is very frustrating.

In fact, no matter how things change, the fundamentals remain the same. I’ll directly share how I judge the situation. Each friend’s circumstances are different, so I roughly categorize all traders into two groups.

The first group consists of friends with a certain amount of capital and a continuous cash flow;

The second group consists of those with less capital, who buy large altcoins like ETH, which is of little significance.

First of all, if your assets can't outperform ETH in this round of increases, you can give up directly; it’s completely meaningless.

For the first group, your goal is simply to steadily grow to A9 and beyond, so during this cycle, you must allocate value assets. They can balance growth and defensiveness in this cycle, serving as your anchor in this market, helping you not lose direction in the roller coaster market. After this cycle, they might lose their growth potential, so you must seize this opportunity firmly. My choices in this area have been repeatedly mentioned before: $CRV @CurveFinance and $AAVE @aave will capture most of the benefits of the stablecoin cycle. A secondary choice is ETH, @pendle_fi and @unichain. @defidotapp's $HOME will also be a king-like presence.

Once the foundation is solid, the rest can be chosen according to your own time and energy. Players who are used to trading in the secondary market can choose strong dealer tokens like @KaitoAI $Kaito, $PEPE, $PNUT to trade back and forth. These tokens will give you enough time to sell and have a margin for error. If you don't leverage too high, there won’t be major issues. If you are an energetic on-chain player, just use small capital to dive into the on-chain, follow players like @yuyue_chris and the wizard @0xcryptowizard, primarily focusing on a Taleb-style barbell strategy. Remember to take profit and withdraw, use some money to honor your parents, buy a car, buy a house.

If you are in the second group, my suggestion is to find a job (those who believe they are capable can DM me), get into the project team, continuously deepen your connections with the industry and your understanding of it. Definitely do not waste time on trash projects; step by step, move up. In ensuring cash flow, you can aggressively dive into the on-chain, take advantage of whatever opportunities arise. The rest is also to remember to take profit and withdraw, honor your parents, and casually check out DeFi apps (and of course, TGE is coming soon).

Lastly, there’s something everyone can participate in: definitely take advantage of the major stablecoin protocols. If you don’t have money, you can appropriately use leverage, but be sure not to leverage both volatility and capital scale simultaneously; it will lead to disastrous outcomes. Don’t ask me how I know this; just ask my old employer @terra_money.

I hope everyone can achieve great results in this cycle, and we will meet at the peak in two years.

(I am preparing to establish a secondary research group, recruiting anyone who can take responsibility for their own choices, regardless of strength. I just hope to have unique insights to participate in group discussions.) 🙋