The short-term rise of BTC is just a façade; the real drop is still to come.
The recent slight rebound of BTC seems to meet expectations, but in my view, this is just the calm before the storm. I have repeatedly mentioned that before a true bull market arrives, the market will likely experience a **violent washout**, and this adjustment may exceed many people's imagination.
Many people say I have been bearish, thinking that we are already in a bull market, but I must remind you: the current trend does not have the characteristics of a bull market.
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One, is this really a bull market? Just look at the altcoins.
A core feature of a bull market is — **a hundred flowers blooming**, rather than just Bitcoin rising.
Let's look at the data: BTC rose from $74,000 to $107,000, with an increase of over $30,000. But at the same time, most altcoins' increases can almost be ignored. Do you remember that wave in November last year? Many altcoins multiplied several times back then, while now they have only risen a few points. Is this considered a bull market?
If only BTC is moving while other cryptocurrencies show no signs of life, it looks more like the main funds are pushing up to sell off, rather than a healthy bull market atmosphere.
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Two, the timing of the concentrated release of positive news is too suspicious.
Recently, there have been continuous positive news: expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are rising, tariff policies are easing... These should be key factors driving the market to strengthen, but they appeared at the high stage of BTC.
Don't you find it strange? Why did these good news not appear when BTC was around $74,000? At that time, the market sentiment was low and needed good news to boost confidence. But the reality was that there were all kinds of negative news: Trump said he would increase global tariffs, U.S. stocks plummeted, Powell's speech was ambiguous...
Releasing good news at this position seems more like an attempt to attract retail investors to take over, preparing for subsequent pullbacks.
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Three, this round of rising lacks liquidity support, and is purely artificially driven.
Let's take another look at the process of this rise: from 74,000 to 107,000, there was almost no significant pullback, it was almost a straight line upwards. During this process, the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, and Japan may even raise interest rates, the overall market liquidity has not improved significantly.
In this situation, being able to forcibly push up indicates that this wave of rising is more due to artificial manipulation rather than a naturally formed upward trend in the market.
The purpose of the main funds doing this is not to take retail investors to the moon, but to activate a large number of trapped positions above, allowing more retail investors to enter and take over, laying the groundwork for the subsequent deep pullback.
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Four, a real bull market often arises after a thorough cleansing.
Looking back at every bull market in history, there is almost always a **significant correction** before the launch, even a halving. This is to wash out a large number of uncertain holders and reduce the pressure of future rallies.
Before the last bull market, BTC also experienced a significant correction; this time will not be an exception. Currently, BTC has not shown obvious pullbacks, nor has there been a panic drop, let alone a large-scale halving. A true bull market will not directly explode on such foundations.
So don’t rush to bottom-fish, and don’t be misled by the small cycle rebound. This is not the starting point of a bull market, but possibly the beginning of a new round of adjustments.
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Finally, a reminder:
A short-term slight rise cannot change the medium to long-term trend direction. After a big rise, there must be a big drop; this is not alarmism, but market rules.
Stay calm, see the rhythm clearly, and don’t deploy heavily at the wrong time. A bull market will appear when least expected, but the premise is that you have to survive.
