Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $112,000 (Fibonacci extension), $115,000 (psychological level)

* Key Support: $107,500 (previous high turned support), $105,200 (4-hour EMA30)

* Indicator Signals: Daily RSI (78) has entered the overbought zone, but the TD sequence shows nine consecutive bullish candles; the CME futures gap at $105,000 needs to be filled.

Event-Driven:

* Bullish: Expected passage of the Texas bill, implementation of stablecoin policy in Hong Kong, BlackRock ETF continues to attract capital

* Bearish: High leverage liquidation risk in CME futures, 62% crash of Trump-themed coin TRUMP causing emotional contagion

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation ($107,500-$112,000): 40% (waiting for policy clarification)

* Upside (break above $112,000): 45% (if the Texas bill passes + ETF net inflow exceeds $500 million in a single day)

* Downside (retest $105,200): 15% (liquidation of high leverage long positions causing a sell-off)

Operational Suggestions:

* Short-term: Short position with light volume at the current price of $109,800, stop loss at $112,500, target at $107,500; if it breaks $112,000 on high volume, chase long to $115,000.