Look, here's the backdrop:
Bitcoin is currently hovering near its all-time high (at the time of writing). If the broader bull case holds true, we could be looking at a blowoff top for Bitcoin somewhere in the range of $180,000 to $250,000 — possibly by Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 (according to Global M2 and similar macro data).
But if that happens, what about our altcoin bags?
Most of us are deep into altcoins and want to be well-positioned for maximum gains when the euphoria phase kicks in. Historically, altcoins dramatically outperform Bitcoin in that final stage of the cycle.
So today, we’re exploring:
How high can altcoins go for the rest of the cycle?
Defining Altcoins in This Context
For today’s discussion, “altcoins” = all cryptos outside the top 10 — not including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, etc.
We're talking about:
▫️Smaller Layer 1s (e.g. Aptos)
▫️Meme coins (e.g. DogWifHat, Fartcoin)
▫️Niche narrative plays (e.g. Plume, Ono, Wormhole)
This brings us to our base chart:
Total crypto market cap minus the top 10 coins = ~$250 billion.
Peanuts, relatively speaking
Scenario 1: Bitcoin-Dominant Market
In this scenario, Bitcoin gets all the attention:
▫️Corporate adoption
▫️Nation-state backing
▫️Institutional money
Altcoins get the sloppy seconds.
Altcoin dominance stays low — roughly 10% — while Bitcoin remains in the upper 50s to low 60s in dominance.
Running the Math:
▫️Bitcoin market cap peaks between $3.7T to $5T
▫️Altcoins = 10% dominance
→ Altcoin market cap = $600B to $800B
Return from here?
→ 2.5x to 3x
Not bad for a bearish altcoin case.
Scenario 2: Full-Blown Altcoin Mania
Now imagine strong altcoin narratives hypnotizing the market:
▫️Real World Assets (RWA)
▫️Gaming
▫️AI integrations
In this world, altcoin dominance reaches 20% (like in early 2022).
Bitcoin's dominance falls to the low 40s.
Running the Math:
▫️Altcoin market cap = $1.75T to $2.44T
▫️Return from here?
→ 7x to 9x
Scenario 3: The Middle Ground — “Altcoin Season Light”
This is a balanced scenario:
▫️Bitcoin doesn’t dominate everything
▫️But altcoins also don’t steal the show
Altcoin dominance = 10–20%,
Bitcoin dominance = just over 50%
Bitcoin still hits $180–250K.
Altcoin Market Cap Estimate:
→ $800B to $1.7T
→ 4x to 6x returns
Seems like a pretty realistic base case.
Technical Analysis & Fibonacci Extensions
Let’s try to narrow the range using traditional TA.
Measured from the 2021 top to 2022 bottom:
▫️1.618 Fibonacci level = $750B
▫️4.236 Fibonacci level = $1.85T
These align closely with our earlier projections.
MACD Insight:
▫️Previous MACD crossovers → 100–250% gains
▫️A 175% move from now = $700B
→ Just below the 1.618 Fib level
So even in a Bitcoin-dominant market, we might raise the lower bound to around $700B
And perhaps lower the top from $2.44T to $1.85T, respecting that 4.236 Fib level.
Revised Altcoin Market Cap Range:
▫️Low End: $700B
▫️High End: $1.85T
▫️Return Potential: 2.8x to 7.5x
That’s for the entire altcoin market outside the top 10.
Final Thoughts: It’s All About Selection
Just because the market might 3x–7x doesn’t mean everything will.
▫️Most altcoins will underperform
▫️A few will 5x, 10x, 50x, even 100x
Tips:
▫️Look for coins with strong narratives
▫️Don't just buy old coins down 99% hoping they return to ATH
▫️Meme coins still win big attention
▫️Technical altcoins will also shine at the right time
Thanks for reading — and remember:
Narrative, momentum, and timing are everything in altcoins.