"Every golden cross is a horn of opportunity or a prelude to a trap?" As the 50-day and 200-day moving averages of Bitcoin are about to converge, this classic technical pattern - the 'golden cross' - has once again become a hot topic in the market. Historical experience tells us that this signal has previously led to a rise of 45% to 60%, but it is not foolproof. Can it deliver expected gains once again this time?



1. What is a 'golden cross'? Why is it important?


"Golden Cross" refers to the short-term moving average (usually the 50-day moving average) crossing above the long-term moving average (usually the 200-day moving average); this is generally viewed as a bullish signal for trend reversal.


Currently, Bitcoin is near this critical turning point:


  • As of May 20, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average is about to cross above the 200-day moving average;


  • If the crossover is successful, it will be the first since October 2024;


  • After the last appearance of this pattern, Bitcoin surged over 60% on the favorable news of Trump's election.



Historical data shows that similar signals have also triggered a rise of 45%-50% in October 2023 and September 2021. In other words, this could be an important starting point for Bitcoin to challenge $100,000 or even $150,000.



2. Fundamental support behind the technical strength


Behind the technical indicators, what is more crucial is whether the fundamentals 'cooperate'. This time, the golden cross is not coming alone; it is supported by multiple macro factors:


  • ✅ US M2 money supply increases: liquidity enhances, benefiting risk assets;


  • ✅ Easing of China-U.S. trade relations: risk sentiment warms, with the market leaning towards growth assets;


  • ✅ Continued effect after ETF entry: institutional funds are continually increasing their Bitcoin holdings, providing medium-term support for the price.



In addition, several on-chain indicators, such as address activity, transaction volume, and long-term holding ratios, are also rising simultaneously. Overall, Bitcoin is currently at a rare stage where technical patterns resonate with fundamentals.



3. Hidden worries under bullishness: Will this time be a 'failure'?


Of course, the market will not always rise unidirectionally. The golden cross has also experienced historical 'failures'; for example, shortly after the signal was released in February 2020, Bitcoin plummeted by 62% due to the COVID-19 black swan event.


This time, potential risk signals cannot be ignored:


  • 📉 The relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin has surpassed 70, entering the overbought range;


  • 🔻 RSI continues to decline while the price is rising, forming a typical 'bearish divergence';


  • 🧭 There is pressure for 'pullbacks after rising', which may first adjust to the support area of $92,400 to $95,000.


Therefore, a short-term pullback is not ruled out, but it does not mean the end of the market; it is more likely to be a buildup for subsequent upward movement.



4. Is $150,000 still a realistic expectation? These points may become key catalysts


Although there is short-term consolidation pressure, the medium- to long-term trend is still worth being bullish. Institutional models, historical data, and fund momentum all point to a potential target area:



$150,000 may be tested in the coming months.



Key driving factors include:


  1. Second round of large-scale ETF funds entering


  2. Supply pressure alleviated after miner halving


  3. Expectations for easing monetary policy from central banks continue to ferment


  4. Changes in the global political situation trigger safe-haven demand (such as Middle East issues, U.S. elections, etc.)



5. Mlion.ai's perspective: How to use the golden cross to layout in advance?


In the face of such a typical technical + fundamental resonance stage, investors should not make decisions solely based on price fluctuations, but should judge based on multidimensional factors such as on-chain dynamics, sentiment indicators, capital flows, and hot topic tracking.


Mlion.ai provides AI price prediction, on-chain fund tracking, and trend signal recognition features that can offer critical advantages to investors in the following areas:


  • Real-time identification of whether Bitcoin has entered the strong buying phase of institutional funds;


  • Determine whether the technical pattern is driven by large orders and whether there is a risk of 'manipulation' by market makers;


  • Predict when overbought indicators like RSI will correct to assist in identifying the best entry points;


  • Compare the strength of historical golden cross signals to avoid the 'February 2020 trap'.



For investors who do not want to blindly chase highs but also do not want to miss market opportunities, combining Mlion.ai's generated periodic research reports and dynamic risk alerts can help you make more confident operational choices at turning points.



Summary: The golden cross is not an endpoint, but a beginning


Bitcoin is approaching another critical moment. The proximity of the golden cross may just be a prelude to a short-term pullback or the ignition point of the next bull market.

But history tells us: missing a signal is not scary; what is scary is not understanding the power behind the signal.


And the current market is no longer an era where K-lines can be seen through alone.

To be stable, precise, and ruthless in this wave of market, one must have a data-driven + AI-assisted strategy system.


#BTC

Disclaimer:

The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market conditions change rapidly, and the prices of crypto assets fluctuate greatly. Please participate cautiously based on thorough research. It is recommended to conduct in-depth analysis using professional research tools like Mlion.ai.