When the major trend of BTC arrives, how should we grasp the rhythm of altcoins?

In a complete trend cycle of BTC (upward → surge → high position → decline → stabilization), altcoins typically present three waves of opportunities, which can be simply divided into three "altcoin seasons":

1. The "Altcoin Bull Season" during the main upward wave. This is the most anticipated market phase, usually occurring against the backdrop of BTC's main upward wave and a strong ETH exchange rate. Essentially, both primary and secondary altcoins in the market will see significant gains, and if macroeconomic easing from the Federal Reserve is also in play, it becomes even better. For example, in February-March 2024 and November-December 2024, the overall performance was very impressive both on-chain and on exchanges.

2. The "Altcoin Mini Season" in a small trend. For instance, currently, from the small-scale trend since April—decline → bottom fluctuation → right-side rebound. Although some individual coins may experience 5-10 times growth, overall, it is not as strong as during the Altcoin Bull Season. During this phase, funds are more cautious, and the concentration of enthusiasm is relatively low.

3. The "Rebound Season" after hitting bottom. A typical example is the recovery after hitting 85 last year, with a lower amplitude. This market phase can only be called a "Rebound Season," but there is a chance it may approach the right-side main upward wave. Specific operations depend on the individual; this is a summary of altcoin performance, influenced by market funds, sentiment, and speculative enthusiasm, providing a general understanding of each significant occurrence.

How to grasp opportunities in tracks and altcoins?

Recent new projects launched on-chain or on exchanges, especially those with notable backgrounds or high enthusiasm;

The market capitalization, narrative, and institutional lineup of projects at the time of launch;

When the trend is good, the market makers behind will give it a push, and seizing this phase is a chance to profit.

Some examples: around November-December 2024: Neiro, Pnut, Lumia, etc.

From the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024: ORDI, WIF, BONK, SEI, etc.

Before the crazy bull market at the beginning of 2021: a large number of projects that exploded in the early stages of DeFi and Meme, like uni, shib, and many others.

Remember: no matter where you make a profit from altcoins, just take the profit and leave; don't get emotionally attached to altcoins. Time and again, very few can truly transcend cycles.