I had a quick look at historical BTC PA within ~5% of ATH:

The data shows when BTC gets close of its previous ATH during a strong, accelerating trend with high momentum, it has historically broken out to new ATHs within a short time (days to weeks).

Strong trend is key, as in weaker trends BTC often stalls or retraces as we saw in March–May 2024.

I think BTC currently meets the criteria for a strong, high-momentum trend (we are waiting on volume tho).

If it continues to hover within 3–5% of the ATH under these conditions, historical probability favors a breakout to new highs very soon.

For some reason I feel like it is going to take longer than days this time, and weeks is more likely (maybe PTSD), or at least to actually meaningfully clear the high, rather than just a short pop above it.

Sentiment still fairly muted on here which makes sense, because no one on CT owns Bitcoin.