Will the altcoin season come? Positioning in the fluctuations, waiting for clear signals
Recently, altcoins have shown signs of differentiated rebounds (such as ETH, SOL, etc. with a 24-hour increase of over 6%), but whether a comprehensive 'altcoin season' can be formed still requires observation of the following factors:
BTC market share decline: Bitcoin's dominance has dropped sharply from 65% to 63.89%, indicating initial signs of capital flowing into altcoins, with the altcoin quarterly index skyrocketing from 23 to 36 within 4 days, nearing the 'altcoin season' threshold.
Macroeconomic liquidity catalysis: The market expects the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by the end of Q3, and loose liquidity will benefit high-risk assets. After the interest rate cut cycle begins, altcoins often experience an explosion.
Localized hotspots drive: Regulatory favorable policies (such as new cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S.) drive public chains (SOL, AVAX) and MEME coins (PEPE) for short-term speculation, but overall still relies on the emotional transmission after BTC breakthrough.
The current rebound is mainly based on localized rotation, making a broad increase more difficult. It is recommended to gradually position in leading and undervalued public chains like ETH and SOL, with a focus on the implementation of Federal Reserve policies and whether BTC's dominance can continue to decline.
Operational reminder: Market sentiment is easily affected by macro disturbances, avoid chasing highs. If altcoins pull back to near the April low, positions can be gradually built, as the interest rate cut cycle in the second half of the year may be the best window.
