⚡️Just came across this chart and there’s a crucial line of numbers — SOMA: $14,825,704,800.

Many people don’t understand what this means; the core question is simple: Has the Federal Reserve secretly started QE again?

To put it simply, technically speaking, yes; in terms of mechanism, no; in terms of market structure, it never really stopped.

Let me give you an example to clarify —

Your household decides to pay off a maximum of 5,000 yuan in loans each month (QT limit), but suddenly one month, 8,000 yuan in debt is due.

You can’t default, so you make up the 3,000 yuan to continue to “buy” part of the debt, and then slowly pay it back, ensuring you don’t exceed that 5,000 yuan budget limit.

This 3,000 yuan is the “SOMA add-on.”

An increase in SOMA replenishment scale means QT is starting to hesitate. What the Federal Reserve is doing right now is this: they say QT with their mouth, but in reality, they are secretly buying bonds to replenish their holdings. The nominal reduction is still there, but the marginal liquidity is turning.

Since March, the QT reduction cap has dropped from 25 billion to 5 billion, sending a signal to the market: “I can’t shrink too fast for fear of causing issues.”

This replenishment operation is different from the active liquidity injection (QE) we usually see; in terms of mechanism, it doesn’t count as QE, but in terms of market impact, it might not differ much — it’s still injecting money.

Because the market doesn’t care whether you’re doing QE; it cares whether you continue to inject liquidity into the system.

So, you don’t have to wait for the Federal Reserve to formally announce “We are restarting QE”; just watch them buy back bonds because they fear stalling, and you’ll know —

The next liquidity cycle has quietly begun in the details.

The name doesn’t matter; what matters is that the money is coming in.

It’s like the Federal Reserve doesn’t really want to fuel the fire anymore, but realizes that if it stalls too quickly, the car will flip over, so it starts to secretly add a little fuel.

And #Bitcoin is like a passenger sitting on the roof of the car:

You may not drive, but as long as the car is moving, it will soar!