Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

* Technical Analysis: The 4-hour chart shows $105,500 (EMA120) as a key support level, with $107,500-$108,200 as a dense selling pressure zone. The MACD volume bars are narrowing, and the RSI (62) is not overbought. If it breaks through $107,300, it will trigger the CTA strategy to chase the rally.

* Catalysts: Texas bill final voting direction, details of Elon Musk-Trump meeting leak, follow-up actions after large ETH transfers.

* Probability Distribution:

* Upward (breakthrough $108,500): 45% (needs favorable policy implementation + institutional buying increase)

* Sideways (between $105,500-$107,500): 40% (bullish and bearish news tug-of-war)

* Downward (below $104,200): 15% (if the Federal Reserve releases stronger hawkish signals + ETH selling pressure spreads)

Action Suggestions:

* Aggressive Strategy: Lightly buy in the range of $106,200-$106,600, stop loss at $105,300, target $108,200; if it breaks through $107,500, you can chase up to $108,500.