The likelihood of an economic recession in the United States is a topic of ongoing debate and analysis among economists and financial analysts. As of the current date (May 2025), several factors suggest growing concern and an increase in the probability of a significant economic slowdown, although there is no absolute consensus on the imminence or severity of a potential recession.

Factors increasing the likelihood of recession:

* Mixed economic indicators and some deteriorating:

* GDP contraction: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a recent quarterly contraction (-0.3%), raising concerns, although other data such as domestic consumption still showed growth up to March.

* Declining consumer confidence: Consumer confidence indices have shown significant deterioration, reflecting concerns about employment, inflation, and the economic future.

* Increase in credit card delinquency: Total credit card debt has reached record levels, and default rates are rising, suggesting consumer "fatigue."

* Cautious business investment: Economic uncertainty and tariff policies may lead companies to reduce their investments.

* Cooling labor market: Although the unemployment rate remains relatively low, there have been downward adjustments in employment figures and an increase in unemployment among certain demographic groups.

* Yield curve inversion: This indicator, historically a predictor of recessions, has remained inverted for an extended period.

* Economic policies:

* Restrictive monetary policy: Increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation may cool the economy and raise the cost of borrowing.

* Uncertainty in trade policies: Tariff policies and trade tensions create uncertainty and may negatively impact trade and investment.

* External factors:

* Geopolitical uncertainty: International conflicts and global instability can impact the U.S. economy through trade, commodity prices, and confidence.

Analysts' opinions and probabilities:

* Several analysts have increased their recession probabilities in the United States. For example:

* JP Morgan has indicated the possibility of a recession and forecasts an increase in unemployment.

* Goldman Sachs and S&P have also increased their recession risk estimates.

* Some analysts place the probability of recession around 60%.

* Uncertainty about economic prospects is considered high, comparable to levels observed during the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion:

While the U.S. economy has shown some resilience, several indicators and analysts' opinions suggest that the chances of an economic recession in the coming quarters are significant. The combination of restrictive monetary policy, political and economic uncertainty (both domestic and external), and the deterioration of some key indicators increase the economy's vulnerability.

It is important to closely monitor future economic data and policy decisions to gain a better understanding of the economic trajectory of the United States.