The conflict between Israel and Iran, which has escalated significantly in recent days with direct attacks, has profound implications at both regional and global levels. Below are the main points:
1. Escalation and risk of regional war:
* Direct attacks: The recent wave of direct attacks between Israel and Iran, including Israeli bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities and the Iranian response with ballistic missiles against Israeli cities such as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, marks a dangerous escalation.
* "Red lines" crossed: Both countries have warned that "red lines" have been crossed, increasing the likelihood of continued reprisals and a cycle of violence that is hard to stop.
* Involvement of third parties: There is a considerable risk that the conflict will expand through Iran's "proxies" in the region (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza) and involve other actors such as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, further destabilizing the Middle East.
* Possible U.S. intervention: The United States has been informed in advance of Israeli attacks, and its role, although not direct military involvement so far, is crucial. The possibility of greater U.S. involvement in the conflict is a significant concern.
2. Geopolitical implications:
* Iranian nuclear program: One of Israel's main motivations is to curb Iran's nuclear program. Attacks on nuclear facilities aim to limit Tehran's ability to develop atomic weapons, but they could also push Iran to accelerate its efforts.
* Regional influence of Iran: Iran exerts significant influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, arming and supporting local militias. A direct conflict could seek to weaken this influence but could also strengthen resistance against Israel.
* Regional realignments: Countries like Saudi Arabia have sought rapprochement with Israel to counter Iranian influence, while others like Turkey are trying to maintain a balance. Escalation could disrupt these dynamics and hinder stability.
* Migration crisis: A large-scale war in Iran could generate a massive migration crisis, with millions of Iranians seeking refuge in neighboring countries and beyond.
* Global uncertainty: Instability in the Middle East generates uncertainty in global financial markets, leading investors to seek safe havens and affecting stock exchanges.
3. Economic consequences:
* Oil and gas prices: The most immediate impact is the drastic increase in oil and gas prices. An escalation, especially if it involves the Strait of Hormuz (through which a significant portion of global oil and gas trade passes), could block exports and drive prices even higher, generating inflation on a global scale.
* Supply chain and logistics: The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are crucial maritime routes. A blockade or intensification of attacks in these areas would severely disrupt global supply chains, increasing freight costs and transit times.
* Impact on global trade: Beyond energy, a prolonged conflict would affect container and bulk dry trade, causing congestion and tariff increases at key ports between Asia, Europe, and Africa.
* Global economic instability: The combination of high energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainty could contribute to a scenario of low growth and high inflation worldwide, impacting economic forecasts from organizations like the IMF and the World Bank.
* Financial markets: Uncertainty makes financial markets volatile. Stock markets may experience declines, although historically these tend to be temporary in regional conflicts.
In summary, the Israeli-Iranian conflict represents a serious threat to regional stability and has the potential to generate economic and geopolitical repercussions on a global scale, with a considerable risk of escalation into a larger conflict. The international community has urged both parties to exercise moderation to avoid disaster.
