Bitcoin Volatility and Market Impact
In the past two days, Bitcoin's long-short volatility has reached 5000 points, with altcoins declining much more than they have risen, and some altcoins have given back nearly a week's worth of gains within three days, intensifying short-term long-short struggles.
Possibility of a Short-Squeeze Reversal
After previously suggesting reducing Bitcoin and high-yield altcoin positions at high levels, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Many are asking if Bitcoin will experience a short-squeeze reversal. Looking at the market, bullish sentiment supports this pattern: rapid pullbacks from lows, creating short-term highs on the four-hour chart. However, I believe that short-term liquidity is insufficient to support a full reversal, even if new highs are reached. A reversal requires macro liquidity injection, such as the initial off-exchange buying brought by the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Currently, funds within the circle can only maintain Ethereum's current price, making it difficult to drive larger trends.
Short-Term Trends and Sentiment Game
A phase high does not immediately indicate a significant drop; sentiment brewing aims to absorb reverse positions and enhance the main players' win rate. Reducing positions for profit at any level is reasonable.
Stablecoin Bill and Global Trends
The US stablecoin bill is close to passing, expected to be implemented on schedule. This move solidifies its dominant position in the crypto market and creates expectations for digesting US debt, showing strategic foresight. In contrast, China appears slightly behind. South Korea plans to issue a won stablecoin to prevent capital outflow, and the renminbi may have a response. There are rumors that the mainland will open up the crypto market within two months, but the likelihood is low, reflecting regulators' attitude towards openness, and policies are to be observed.
ETF Data and Market Signals
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 667 million USD, and Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 13.66 million USD, with data looking favorable. If this continues until the end of the month, any decline caused by insufficient liquidity may end or reverse.
The approval of Solana spot ETFs and staking ETFs has been delayed, prioritizing current market stability over last year's urgency.
Binance Alpha and Community Dynamics
Binance Alpha section's free airdrop is worth paying attention to, low investment with high returns. In the past month, General Liang's four accounts, with individual account investments ≤100U, have accumulated 4800U in airdrops, far exceeding the earnings of most Web2 jobs.
BTC Analysis
Bitcoin holders are concentrated in the 93000-97000 range, serving as strong support before pushing for new highs. In the short term, it may test previous highs, but it is difficult to sustain a rise that changes the fundamentals. A reasonable logic is a slight dip to test the bottom, building momentum for new highs. Watch for support at 10100; if it breaks down, it may take a long time to confirm the bottom; the upper pressure is the short-term high. Exercise caution when chasing highs before breaking new highs or falling below trend support.
ETH Analysis
Ethereum is correlated with Bitcoin, with a trend-based adjustment for increased positions. Current positions remain unchanged; if Bitcoin pulls back, the reduced portion can be reinvested in Ethereum.
Altcoin Observation
RWA and DeFi concepts are expected to lead the market, and the stablecoin bill is favorable for DeFi, leading to an increase in Aave. Altcoin holding suggestions are to remain cautious and wait for clearer trends, apart from necessary reductions.
Fear and Greed Index: 71 intraday.