For short cycles, medium cycles, and long-term trends, I don't know how everyone understands it.

My understanding is:

Short cycles, even medium cycles, can be driven by events, such as Trump's tariffs, the US-China game, Moody's ratings, Bessen's speeches; essentially, it is no different from a CPI data release or whether a Bitcoin reserve bill passes in the news;

However, from a broader long-term perspective, the trend is developing in the direction it was originally meant to go. For instance, how do we characterize this Bitcoin rebound as so fierce? Is it a rebound or a reversal?

At least currently, I don't see a strong upward driving force like when the ETF was approved or the expectations of interest rate cuts two years ago;

Moreover, while trading, we also need to consider the current price. When ETFs and interest rate cut expectations started to drive, Bitcoin's price was around 30,000, and when Trump's market exploded, Bitcoin was around 55,000. Now, Bitcoin has risen from 75,000 to 100,000;

I think it's possible for Bitcoin's price to break through previous highs from this position, but it's just a bait for more buyers. To maintain a long bull market upward, the amount of funds needed to buy will increase exponentially;

Is there money in the market? I've said before, yes, but currently, I still haven't found a reason for this money to enter the market, which is the basic logic for my judgment on this round of market.