Will there be an altcoin season soon? Is there still an altcoin season in this round? BTC has returned to 100,000 and seems relatively stable above that level. Will there be an altcoin season soon? ➤ Does an altcoin season mean a decline in BTC's market share? ❚ An altcoin season at least requires BTC to stabilize. When discussing altcoin seasons, most friends intuitively feel that BTC's market share declines. As a barometer of the industry, the cryptocurrency market has rarely seen BTC decline while altcoins soar. At least BTC needs to stabilize for an altcoin season to occur. ❚ Historically, altcoin seasons began with BTC rising + BTC's market share declining. Let's review history together: Jingjie has removed the market capitalizations of USDC and USDT and then recalculated BTC's market share. At the end of 2017 and 2021, the comparison of BTC's market capitalization and market share shows the same state.
The blue line represents BTC's market share, and the orange line represents BTC's market capitalization. At the end of 2017 and the end of 2021, both times the blue line, which is BTC's market share, reached a peak first. Then the orange line, which is BTC's market capitalization, reached a peak.
In other words, between these two peaks, the orange line is still rising, indicating that BTC is still increasing. However, the blue line is declining, meaning that BTC's market share is decreasing. This indicates that the altcoin season has started! This is accompanied by an increase in BTC and a decrease in BTC's market share. Historically, altcoin seasons began with BTC rising + BTC's market share declining. ❚ In a minor bull market, there is no altcoin season. Looking back to mid-2019, the situation was exactly the opposite; BTC's market capitalization reached its peak first, followed by BTC's market share. Between these two peaks, BTC was declining while BTC's market share was rising. It is just that the decline of altcoins was slower; it was not BTC declining while altcoins were rising. There was no altcoin season during the minor bull market.
➤ What are the differences between a major bull market and a minor bull market? The differences between a major bull market and a minor bull market may be twofold: ❚ Different sentiment cycles ◆ In 2019, after experiencing the major bear market of 2018, sentiment rebounded. ◆ In 2017 and 2021, it was one year after BTC halving, and BTC's scarcity stimulated the sentiment of a major bull market. ❚ Different macro environments ◆ In the first half of 2018-2019, the Federal Reserve was in a tightening monetary policy. At the end of 2018, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop balance sheet reduction in mid-2019, thus stimulating minor bull market sentiment. However, the first half of 2019 did not have sufficient liquidity. ◆ In 2017, it was at the beginning of interest rate hikes, and policies often had a certain lag; the market liquidity was still relatively ample at the beginning of interest rate hikes. Just like now in 2025, we are at the beginning of interest rate cuts (with cuts in 2024), and market liquidity is still relatively tight. In 2021, it was a time of significant liquidity expansion. ➤ Conditions for an altcoin season Through comparison, we can understand the two conditions for an altcoin season and a major bull market: One is the sentiment and cycle within the industry, which is currently satisfied. The second is sufficient liquidity formed by the macro environment, which is still not satisfied. Additionally, in the previous chart, we also see: historical altcoin seasons began with BTC rising + BTC's market share declining. This state means that BTC is rising while altcoins are rising even more. Such a situation clearly requires the market to have sufficient liquidity for BTC and altcoins to surge simultaneously. Therefore, industry factors and macro factors are two necessary but insufficient conditions for an altcoin season. ➤ Will there be an altcoin season soon? The market expects the first rate cut to be in September. Even if there are rate cuts in June-July, it will not immediately create significant liquidity; liquidity will only come after a period of rate cuts. Therefore, the conditions for an altcoin season are not met recently.
➤ Will there still be an altcoin season in this round? Although many friends are desperate about altcoin seasons, we cannot rule out the possibility of an altcoin season. Note that from an overall perspective, BTC rising + BTC's market share declining can be seen as an altcoin season. Jingjie's judgment is that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in Q4 or even Q3, and as interest rates fall, liquidity will gradually increase. BTC should gradually start up accordingly, and the altcoin season may occur in the first half of 2026, mainly in Q1. Because during this period, it aligns with market sentiment cycles + macro environment. Jingjie has mentioned before that in the first half of 2018, EOS and TRON mainnets went live, triggering a wave of public chain enthusiasm. In the first half of 2022, the famous project StepN also emerged. On one hand, as the demand side of the market, sentiment will not suddenly shift from bullish to bearish; there will be continuity. On the other hand, as the supply side of the market, some projects may have development difficulties and may take longer to launch. More importantly, as ETFs are approved and institutions enter the market, the influence of internal industry groups (mining pools, exchanges, etc.) is weakening. Moreover, the amount of BTC yet to be mined is decreasing, and the impact of halving is naturally diminishing. Conversely, macro influences are increasing, so macro liquidity easing will have a stronger decisive power over the altcoin season. This is why Brother Bee still believes that there will be an altcoin season. ➤ It is hard for an altcoin season to be a broad rally. Whether the altcoin season will be a broad rally, a rotation rally, or a local rally depends on the size of liquidity. ◆ Large liquidity is closer to a broad rally; ◆ Moderate liquidity may just be a rotation rally; ◆ Small liquidity may just be a local rally. However, it is generally difficult for it to be a broad rally because there are simply too many cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, it depends on the narrative within the Web3 industry. Strong narratives in certain sectors and projects will still see optimistic timeframes and price increases. Conversely, some non-innovative copycat projects or last-minute efforts may not attract market interest. Currently, Jingjie personally sees three narratives as more promising: One is AI, which can combine with many sectors, such as trading, gaming, etc. Two is RAW / RWAFi / PayFi, which have certain Web3 backgrounds and may not be overly restricted by bull-bear cycles. Three is chain abstraction; there are just too many Layer 1 and Layer 2 solutions. The market needs chain abstraction. Besides this, DePin also has some opportunities, but comparatively, AI + DePin is likely to have a larger market. ➤ In conclusion: First, there is currently no altcoin season. Second, there is still a high probability of an altcoin season in this round. Third, before rate cuts, it cannot be ruled out that there may still be a possibility of downward movement; Trump may negotiate with countries to suspend tariff policies and moderately increase tariffs. If there are no black swan events, the market may experience a consolidation trend. It is somewhat similar to the market waiting for reactions before rate cuts from March to September last year. However, it will not be completely consistent. Last year, BTC generally experienced wide fluctuations, but altcoins were trending downwards; recently, there may be some strong altcoins, after all, it is a bullish cycle year. But whether the US stock market and BTC will crash depends on whether a black swan event occurs. Japan's interest rate hike may have some impact; Japan's current benchmark interest rate of 0.5% is the highest since 1996. The yen is internationally recognized as a safe-haven asset, and if it continues to hike rates, the market's reaction is difficult to predict. Japan's inflation rate is still somewhat high, and it may continue to raise rates. However, Brother Bee believes that Japan's interest rate hikes should be within the expectations of traditional financial markets and investors, not a significant black swan.
