Important information in the last 24 hours:
1. Bybit announces support for USDT trading of 78 high-quality global stock assets, bridging the gap between crypto and traditional finance.
2. The cumulative net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF has reached a historical high, exceeding $42.4 billion.
3. The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June is 91.4%.
4. The US SEC has postponed its decision on the Solana ETF application.
5. US lawmakers: Stablecoin issuers will become the largest holders of US government bonds in the world.
6. Michael Saylor: In the first 49 days of Q2, MSTR achieved a 4.8% BTC yield.
7. JPMorgan's Dimon: The market exhibits unusual complacency, severely underestimating inflation and stagflation risks.
8. The Texas Bitcoin Reserve Bill will be read for the second time in the House today.
9. Justin Sun will attend Trump's dinner as the top holder of the TRUMP token.
As of May 20, 2025, Bitcoin's price peaked at around $107,000, just a step away from $110,000. Market sentiment oscillates between 'rising' and 'pulling back.' Although yesterday's daily line formed a doji star, today it rebounded quickly and tested the previous high again, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's pullback low is still near the key trendline support. On-chain data shows that long-term holders' positions are stable, and the market fundamentals remain healthy. The pullback may provide an opportunity for a breakthrough.
Key factors for the continuation of the bull market:
Deepening institutionalization process: Bitcoin ETF funds have cumulatively flowed in over $50 billion, and institutions like MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings. The supply tightening effect is gradually becoming apparent, and the logic of long-term value reassessment remains unchanged.
Technical model support: If the upward pattern continues, the next target points to $115,000.
Favorable macro environment: Expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, inflation pressure, and geopolitical risks enhance Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute. The Sharpe ratio (1.72) is close to that of gold, attracting risk-averse funds.
Risk factors of local peaks:
Short-term pullback pressure: RSI and MACD show bearish divergence, funding rates have turned positive. If prices fall below $102,000, it may trigger long position liquidations and exacerbate the decline.
Concerns about tightening liquidity: If the Federal Reserve's policy shifts towards accelerating interest rate hikes or balance sheet reduction, it may suppress the performance of risk assets, and Bitcoin's volatility may magnify in the short term.
Will the altcoin season come? Positioning amid fluctuations, waiting for clear signals.
Recently, altcoins have shown signs of diverging rebounds (such as ETH, SOL, etc., which rose more than 6% in 24 hours), but whether a full-blown 'altcoin season' can form still depends on the following factors:
BTC market share decline: Bitcoin's dominance has dropped sharply from 65% to 63.89%, showing initial signs of funds flowing into altcoins. The altcoin quarterly index has surged from 23 to 36 in just four days, approaching the 'altcoin season' threshold.
Macroeconomic liquidity catalysis: The market expects the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by the end of Q3, and liquidity easing will benefit high-risk assets. After the start of the rate-cutting cycle, altcoins often see explosive growth.
Locally driven hotspots: Regulatory benefits (such as new US crypto regulations) have driven short-term speculation in public chains (SOL, AVAX) and MEME coins (PEPE), but overall still relies on BTC's emotional transmission after breaking through.
Currently, the rebound focuses on local rotations, and a broad increase is challenging. It is recommended to gradually allocate ETH, SOL, and other leading low-valuation public chains, paying close attention to the implementation of Federal Reserve policies and whether BTC's dominance can continue to decline.
Operation reminders: Market sentiment is easily affected by macro disturbances; avoid chasing highs. If altcoins pull back to around the April lows, you can gradually build positions. The second half of the year may be the best window for the rate-cutting cycle.
Pullbacks in a bull market are opportunities rather than risks; patience is more valuable than aggression.
Four major catalysts are about to ignite the market, and three altcoins are brewing potential 10-50x行情!
people
people is a project that launched in November 2021, just as Bitcoin broke through its historical high and the bull market ended, so the explosive power after its launch was relatively small. This bull market has already seen one wave of explosion; is there a possibility of a second explosion? The total supply of people is 5.06 billion, current circulating market value is 128 million, circulation rate is 100%. As a popular project in the meme coin sector, it still has relatively high attention, and there's still a substantial space above in the bull market. Recently, the meme sector's popularity has remained high, and people has also nearly doubled recently.
From the monthly chart perspective, the coin price has currently reached near the last high point before the end of the previous bull market. This position has failed to break through after two tests. However, once it breaks and stabilizes above 0.03, there will not be significant selling pressure in the short term. I believe the possibility of a second explosion for people is very high, but don't expect it to rise ten to twenty times like the first explosion. Overall, a 3-5x space seems reasonable.
MKR
The sector with the highest demand in a bull market is lending. The logic of staking and cross-chain is that people are reluctant to sell coins, so they will stake and borrow stablecoins to do other staking, generating significant profits within the public chain itself. The crazier the bull market, the more staking occurs; various public chains will prosper, making cross-chain a hard necessity.
So the strategy I provided earlier to bottom fish AAVE is fundamentally sound; borrowing in a bull market is a necessity, and AAVE has essentially monopolized the lending market. The operators are also strong. Currently, AAVE in the lending sector has risen; if you missed it, you can look at MKR.
APT
APT is a leading altcoin with 'bottom support,' unlike new coins that drop without bottom. It is still in the bottom range now, and the daily/4-hour chart shows a '123 structure' + 'retest 3' healthy fluctuation. Enter at the current price with a stop-loss below the bottom structure (with a 5%-10% tolerance). If it breaks the downtrend line, it can be viewed as a target of up to 130%. If it breaks below the structural support, strictly stop-loss. APT currently has the dual advantages of 'high risk-reward ratio + clear bottom', suitable for medium to long-term allocation.
AAVE
This coin's performance is quite stable; it has doubled from the bottom and is still rising, generating pure profit with zero cost. Last year, we had already doubled our principal with AAVE and COMP; this time it should reach 300. This type of coin can also accommodate large funds. I've been advising everyone to bottom fish around 150; currently, it looks good.
AAVE has a good structure; this coin belongs to the DeFi concept, in the lending financial sector. When the market conditions are right for a bull market to start, both the main players and retail investors will leverage based on on-chain conditions. Thus, lending finance is also the engine of the bull market. AAVE can also belong to the RWA track in detail; currently, the RWA track is still not very clear, which is precisely when opportunities are hidden.
