After a strong rise in price over the past few weeks, Dogecoin faced a setback this week. It dropped from $0.25 to about $0.21. Around May 17 to 18, traders saw Dogecoin briefly rebound above $0.23, but this situation did not last long.

As of today, the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) is close to $0.21, with a weekly decline of 10%. Investors are watching macro conditions, hoping long-term signals may indicate a new upward trend.

Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook with some doubts - public account: Feng Baobao is roasting sweet potatoes.

Analyst Javon Marks stated that a key trend line broke at the end of 2023. This trend line has been a support level since Dogecoin peaked at $0.70. He noted that this breakout has resulted in higher highs and higher lows.

As of now, the stock has maintained a new low around $0.15. Based on this view, he maintains a target price of $0.65, which implies a 200% increase from $0.21. Marks also mentioned that $0.74 and $1.25 are potential future upside targets.

The resistance level remains a key obstacle.

Market observer Ali Martinez pointed out in his report that the $0.25 to $0.26 range is a key resistance area. This range served as a support level in December 2024, but has turned into a resistance level entering 2025.

Since then, this meme coin has attempted to break through this level multiple times, but all attempts have failed. Particularly in February, the coin's price once climbed to a high of $0.28 but quickly fell back below $0.15. In March, although the market rebounded and the price broke through $0.19 again, it ultimately failed to continue its upward movement.

The last test of this resistance level occurred in May, when the price peaked at $0.24 but ultimately closed at $0.22. Traders are closely monitoring the movement of this currency pair, especially hoping it can clearly close above $0.26, as this would be seen as a positive signal for new upward momentum.

Strong growth in on-chain activity.

According to the latest data, wallet activity has significantly increased. Over the past seven days, the number of new addresses has grown by over 100%. The number of active addresses has increased by 110%.

Even zero balance addresses have increased by 155%, which typically indicates new participants or addresses being cleared. A higher number of on-chain addresses does not always imply a price increase, but it does indicate that more users are actively recording transactions.

Regulation and hot events: The Musk effect and regulatory clouds.

Musk's 'divine predictions' and actions are undoubtedly the core driving force behind Dogecoin's popularity. The coincidence of his government efficiency department (DOGE) with the name of Dogecoin has sparked market frenzy, with X users jokingly stating, 'Musk will take Dogecoin to the moon.' Additionally, Coinbase will launch Dogecoin futures trading in April 2025, providing new tools for professional traders and increasing market liquidity. Potential approval of crypto ETFs may also bring new capital inflows to Dogecoin. However, regulatory uncertainty remains a hidden risk. @dogiefate warned on X that the SEC's integration of the innovation department could lead to policy reversals, and if regulations tighten, meme coins may bear the brunt.

Summary: Is a 200% price increase dream achievable?

Dogecoin is currently struggling around $0.21, but market sentiment, technical indicators, and fundamentals all show its potential for a breakout. Musk's endorsement, explosive growth in on-chain activity, and bullish signals from technical analysis support a 200% upside target. However, breaking the $0.26 resistance level is crucial; if it can hold above this level, targets of $0.65 or even $1.25 are not out of reach. In the short term, traders need to watch whether Dogecoin can rebound to $0.25 and maintain stability to preserve the high-low pattern. A drop below $0.21 could collapse the bullish structure, triggering further corrections. The future of Dogecoin is a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, and investors need to make cautious decisions amid Musk's 'divine predictions' and regulatory clouds.