ThanTaiCrypto
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Why does the price of Bitcoin rise sharply after each halving???
1. BTC supply decreases significantly
• Each halving reduces the reward for miners by half (for example: from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC in 2024).
• This means:
• The supply of newly issued BTC each day decreases by 50%.
• From ~900 BTC/day → down to ~450 BTC/day.
→ If demand remains the same or increases while supply decreases → prices tend to rise.
2. Market expectations and psychology
• Investors know in advance that halving will occur (about every 4 years), and expect that it will trigger a price surge like previous cycles.
• This creates a psychological effect of "buy before the price rises", leading to:
• Strong accumulation before and after halving.
• FOMO (fear of missing out) when prices start to rise quickly → continues to push prices up.
3. Selling pressure from miners decreases
• Miners are the group that frequently sells BTC on the market to cover operating costs.
• When block rewards decrease:
• They hold more, only selling when prices are high.
• The amount of BTC "dumped" on the market decreases → reducing supply pressure.
4. Historical post-halving cycle
Previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all led to significant price increases in the 12–18 months following.
5. Stock-to-Flow model
• This is a pricing model based on scarcity.
• Halving causes Bitcoin's (S/F) ratio to increase → theoretically increasing its value.
• Famous KOL PlanB uses this model to predict BTC could reach:
• ~$100k–$150k after the 2024 halving.
• And could rise to $1 million by the end of the decade.
✅ Conclusion:
+ Decreased supply → Increased scarcity
+ Expectation psychology and FOMO
+ Miners sell less → reduced pressure
+ Historical cycles and pricing models support price increases
=> BTC rises sharply.
Crypto God
1. BTC supply decreases significantly
• Each halving reduces the reward for miners by half (for example: from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC in 2024).
• This means:
• The supply of newly issued BTC each day decreases by 50%.
• From ~900 BTC/day → down to ~450 BTC/day.
→ If demand remains the same or increases while supply decreases → prices tend to rise.
2. Market expectations and psychology
• Investors know in advance that halving will occur (about every 4 years), and expect that it will trigger a price surge like previous cycles.
• This creates a psychological effect of "buy before the price rises", leading to:
• Strong accumulation before and after halving.
• FOMO (fear of missing out) when prices start to rise quickly → continues to push prices up.
3. Selling pressure from miners decreases
• Miners are the group that frequently sells BTC on the market to cover operating costs.
• When block rewards decrease:
• They hold more, only selling when prices are high.
• The amount of BTC "dumped" on the market decreases → reducing supply pressure.
4. Historical post-halving cycle
Previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all led to significant price increases in the 12–18 months following.
5. Stock-to-Flow model
• This is a pricing model based on scarcity.
• Halving causes Bitcoin's (S/F) ratio to increase → theoretically increasing its value.
• Famous KOL PlanB uses this model to predict BTC could reach:
• ~$100k–$150k after the 2024 halving.
• And could rise to $1 million by the end of the decade.
✅ Conclusion:
+ Decreased supply → Increased scarcity
+ Expectation psychology and FOMO
+ Miners sell less → reduced pressure
+ Historical cycles and pricing models support price increases
=> BTC rises sharply.
Crypto God
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