#稳定币法案
LQTY surges 12% but faces key resistance! Beware of overbought pullback risks, precise points exposed
Summary
LQTY current price is $1.008, with a 24-hour surge of 11.75% breaking through MA200 (0.96) and holding cost line (0.916), but RSI has reached 86.7 indicating severe overbought conditions, with a Bollinger Band deviation of 144% creating extreme values. It is recommended to set up short positions near the resistance level of 1.05, with a stop loss above 1.05 and a target in the 0.92 support area, yielding a risk-reward ratio of 2.09:1. Caution is advised due to an 8.93% decrease in the main contract positions, which may trigger selling pressure.
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Band position at 144.4% extreme deviation, after price breaks the upper band (0.9576), there is strong demand for regression
• MA200 deviation of 4.9% shows that the effectiveness of the mid-term trend breakout is questionable
• Holding cost deviation of 10% indicates that the current price has deviated from the main cost area
2. Market Strength:
• Trading volume is 1.54 times in conjunction with the price increase, but the positions have decreased by 8.93% in 24 hours revealing main players are withdrawing
• The perpetual contract long-short ratio of 1.95 has reached a new high this month, but the funding rate is only 0.01% indicating extremely low shorting costs
• The February 'V2 Stable Pool Anomaly' old news has no substantial impact
3. Key Positions:
• Support levels at 0.96 (MA200 center) / 0.916 (holding cost line)
• Resistance levels at 1.05 (integer level + dense liquidation zone) / 1.144 (historical trading proportion of 24.29% peak)
Market Cycle Analysis
1. Current Cycle:
In the acceleration phase at the end of a bull market, after 12 consecutive bullish candles on the 4-hour chart, there is a capital outflow of 59k contracts at the 30m level, increasing the risk of cycle transition.
Trading Strategy
1. Specific Points:
• Entry: Current price of 1.008 (marginal value in overbought zone)
• Stop Loss: 1.05 (if the previous high is broken, the trend continues)
• Target: 0.92 (holding cost and MA200 resonance zone)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.09:1 ((1.008-0.92)/(1.05-1.008)=0.088/0.042)
2. Risk Warning:
• Overbought indicators may continue to dull and trigger short squeezes
• Funding rates have not shown significant negative values limiting shorting profits
• Main contract net outflow of $1.3 million over 5 days requires caution for liquidity risks
• Operational Suggestion: Use 10% position, take profit in batches at 0.96/0.94
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