Forecast for BTC Price Movement in the Next 24 Hours

* Technical Analysis: The daily chart has formed a 'Hammer' candlestick, with $103,300 (EMA50) as key support and $107,000 as the previous high resistance level. The 4-hour MACD has a golden cross but lacks volume; a breakout above $106,500 is needed to confirm a trend reversal.

* Catalysts: Progress on Australia's tax rebate policy, US PCE inflation data (tonight at 20:30), leaked results from a Coinbase survey.

* Probability Distribution:

* Upside (break above $107,500): 40% (needs favorable tax rebate news to ferment + institutional buying)

* Range-bound (between $103,300 - $106,500): 35% (market sentiment driven by mixed news)

* Downside (fall below $102,100): 25% (if PCE data exceeds expectations + increased selling pressure from whales)

Strategy Recommendations:

* Short-term: Lightly enter long positions near $105,500, with a stop loss at $103,800; if it breaks above $106,800, consider increasing long positions up to $107,500.