Today is May 19, 2025. Four years have passed since the historically market-shaking '5.19' curse day, but the market seems unable to shake off the psychological shadow brought by this date.
Last night, Bitcoin surged to the resistance zone of $106,000-$108,000 before quickly plunging. Ethereum (ETH) showed more weakness, briefly touching $2,600 before plummeting to around $2,300, and altcoins collectively fell, with the market in a state of lament.
Currently, the market is caught in a hesitation phase of 'rebound or reversal,' and the game after the US stock market opens tonight may become a key for short-term directional choice.
The bulls are buried! Shiguang has mentioned several times about false breakouts; when it really happens, it still feels a bit uncomfortable.
However, a false breakout doesn’t necessarily mean entering a bear market immediately, because there’s also a possibility of returning to a consolidation zone, which means Bitcoin doesn’t break below 100,000 and continues to consolidate. There may be favorable news later that could cause it to rise a bit, but not too much.
Because Bitcoin is actually nearing its peak, just catch a safe part of the fish without needing to eat the tail.
In the short term, the consolidation zone around 100,000 for Bitcoin is very important. As long as it doesn’t break below, everything is normal. If it does break, the situation will not be good; it could slide downwards. I think the next bottom will appear in July or August during the summer lull; hopefully, everything goes as planned.
ETH is relatively weak. It dipped significantly in the early morning and could not continue to create new lows. Currently, Ethereum has formed a downward trend on the 4-hour chart, with support around 2340. If it breaks below the current range, it could drop to around 2100. The high leverage of Ethereum makes it easy to trigger a cascade during a pullback, often resulting in significant declines. In the short term, we need to see if Ethereum can find support at the 20-day moving average. If it breaks below this average, it may drop below 2000. However, Sweet Dream believes that it’s still market makers targeting domestic retail investors to create panic selling; it may recover after tonight.
The altcoin market is generally retreating today. A retreat is an opportunity to make easy money. DOOGE is priced at 0.21 today, and SUI is at a low of 3.6; these are all very cheap. Today is an opportunity for ordinary people who want to get rich to make money.
These days, the market has been a bit strange. On one hand, Bitcoin is soaring and nearing new highs; on the other hand, altcoins seem a bit sluggish. According to the 'altcoin season index,' it has recently turned downward, dropping from a rebound of 43 to now 24. This means that now it’s 'Bitcoin as the father, altcoins as the grandchildren.' When this index is high, it indicates that altcoins are rising faster than Bitcoin; when it’s low, it indicates that money is flowing back to Bitcoin. Last December, this index peaked at 87, and it was quite lively then, with altcoins flying everywhere. But now, returning to reality, the retail investors are starting to be cautious.
The current situation is completely different. If Bitcoin dares to halve, it would be equivalent to handing out chips, so at most, it would just cause some panic selling today.
However, not all altcoins are bad. In the past 90 days, among the top 100 projects by market cap, there have been 24 coins that have risen more than BTC, such as FARTCOIN, FORM, IP, VIRTUAL, BRETT... These coins may not be familiar to you, but what does it indicate? The market is diversifying; some coins are quietly taking off while others are playing dead.
So don’t think that just because BTC has risen, altcoins can surge randomly. Right now, it’s a BTC-dominated market. Altcoins depend on whether the 'theme + popularity + funds' can keep up; blindly investing heavily can easily lead to being trapped. Wait for the altcoin index to rise again, perhaps back above 50, which may signal the 'true start of altcoin season.'
At this stage, you can either ambush strong logic new coins (like AI, L2, GameFi types) or just lie down and watch BTC perform; don’t make random moves. Don’t let your hands get itchy; don’t rush.
This wave must have a clear judgment on the projects held, whether they really have competitiveness and potential. Don’t get emotionally attached just because you’ve been stuck for a long time. I prefer to hold those infrastructure projects that have stood the test of time, such as sol, sui, link, uni, aave, and similar projects; no matter what the narrative is later, their performance will not be too poor.
Additionally, there’s $VIRTUAL that Shiguang has mentioned many times:
It provides infrastructure for AI-driven synthetic environments and metaverse deployments. Following the recent adoption of scalability in AI tokens, the Virtuals protocol has been continuously developing over the past month, becoming one of the best liquidity providers for its native tokens.
Recently, Virtuals Protocol opened $VIRTUAL staking, and 20% of Virgen points will be distributed proportionally to veVIRTUAL holders, which is a positive catalyst.
Choosing altcoins requires careful selection; sometimes waiting for the right opportunity is also a strategy. If the 'altcoin spring' really comes, you might be able to make money even with your eyes closed. But for now, you still need to be cautious.
On-chain PVP projects have been very popular lately, but this weekend, the biggest surges have been in old meme coins like moodeng, neiro, and pnut. These coins have long been targeted by some well-funded market makers, making them potential leading candidates. Once the altcoin market really arrives, they are likely to surge first.
HUMA voting for new listings has begun!
Starting today, the voting for HUMA on Jup has officially launched. If you have staked Jup, don’t miss out; the voting lasts for four days. I looked at the details, and this time, humafinance's public offering is simply a gift. The off-market valuation of $HUMA has already reached 1 billion, while the public offering scale is only 75 million, making the potential returns clearly several times. Think back to when the entire network was still discussing the crisis management of DrPayFi; it seems that friends participating in HUMA are about to make a profit.
Aster is now ramping up!
I just saw the data; in the past 24 hours, 21,300 new users have joined, which has also driven the $APX price up sharply, with very high enthusiasm. I took a break over the weekend, and today I need to quickly rally with my brothers! This wave should last about a month, no need to stretch it out for a long time. After finishing the Alpha points every day, let’s also do some Aster tasks, and it will be over soon. For those who haven’t started yet, hurry up and get on board!
Good news: $GASS has tripled!
Bad news: My group friend got washed out!
GasspasCat really washed out most retail investors before starting to break through the previous high. I entered with a market cap of around 1 million, and it fell as low as 400,000 market cap. Many retail investors must feel that this market is dead, including my group friend.
Because he is almost fully invested, the psychological pressure is quite high. Failing to resist at the lowest point is also a normal reaction for most retail investors. Market makers are precisely targeting this psychology, and the reasons I haven’t sold out are two.
1. After experiencing the washout of $RATO, I have grown quite resilient. As long as I believe in a sustainable narrative, I can stick with the market makers, so even if it falls 50%, I won't sell.
2. The pressure from my initial investment is not great. The early-stage low market cap memecoin strategy is to bet small for big returns; going all-in is basically impossible for me. Even if the position goes to zero, it doesn’t affect me much; I have the capital to stick with the market makers.
Brothers, when trading coins, you must learn to think in reverse; anti-human actions are often the most rational.
How to approach no-loss point accumulation on Alpha.
No-loss point accumulation is actually very simple, primarily using the recently launched $BLUE / $USDC trading pair from bluefinapp on Alpha. It was available before, but the losses were not small.
Today, it suddenly became no-loss, and one important reason is that last night the project party added nearly 1M in funds to open a new LP pool, and the transaction fee has dropped to 0.001%, which can basically be ignored.
Step 1:
You need to first deposit a little $SUI into your Binance wallet as gas and transfer the $USDC you plan to use for volume accumulation onto the $SUI chain, for example, $2,000.
Step 2:
Find the Alpha section on the wallet page, click 'View More,' and enter Blue in the search box, then click 'Buy.'
Step 3:
Start buying and selling. After multiple tests, buying and selling at this volume of $2,000 is basically no loss. This morning, I was lazy and tested a $5,000 transaction, and after 7 transactions back and forth, I only incurred about $1.8 in losses.
Q: Why can’t I operate directly in the Alpha section of CEX?
A: Currently, Blue in the Binance App does not support market price operations; it can only place orders, which significantly affects trading speed and is easily influenced by price fluctuations. Only operating directly on the Sui chain in the wallet is at market price and can execute quickly.
Q: Why do I sometimes experience large price differences?
A: During testing, you might occasionally encounter situations where the wallet balance updates slowly, so after buying, you can't sell immediately, leading to exposure to price fluctuations. It's advisable to find times when fewer people are trading. As long as you buy and sell immediately, theoretically, it should be without loss.
Q: Why is the loss so much smaller compared to other currency pairs?
A: Because the fees in other pools were at most one in ten thousand, bluefinapp lowered the fees directly to one in a hundred thousand last night, which is practically negligible. This kind of internal competition is simply too welcome, haha. 🤣🤣🤣
Additionally, $Blue currently has a trading activity where the first 8,000 participants can grab 675 $Blue each, which at the current price is worth $68, so it's really a chance to earn while eating. 😂😂 I hope this will help the friends who supported with a thumbs up today.
One last small reminder: since this pool was just added last night, I can only see the scores after I accumulate points today. I originally planned to wait until tomorrow to see the points before sharing, but I couldn’t help but spill the beans first; hopefully, there won’t be any unexpected issues.
Friends who seek stability can also wait for me to see the points tomorrow before trying.
In the past week, Binance Alpha has connected 4 AI projects: PRAI / AGT / REX / XTER.
As we all know, anything related to the concept of AI is a money printer and one of the easiest tracks for financing monsters to emerge. Can AI projects launched on Alpha break even? Based on the publicly available financing information, I have compiled a simple table below.
Among them, XTER fell sharply after the official announcement of the alpha launch. Its original price was above the VC cost line, so it has little reference significance in the short term. After the launch, it might need to be smashed down again... 😂 On the other hand, PRAI has stabilized relative to the price after digesting the pressure from airdrop selling, staying around $0.08; remember, Privasea's financing in the privacy track is also a 'textbook-level case,' with a valuation increase of 36 times in 14 months, skyrocketing to one of the top three valuations in the privacy track, and it has signed a market-making agreement with Amber Group and GSR Markets.
I glanced at the tokenomics, and the investors’ tokens will start to be released linearly around October 2025 (the team hasn’t provided a specific time, so I can only estimate based on the Emission Schedule). Before that, they will surely engage in some market cap management, haha; after all, it’s just a tiny fee of one in ten thousand, with pool depth of 3M+, while Binance Alpha is distributing points and simultaneously ambushing, perhaps there will be unexpected joy.
Updating on the progress of $Candle.
I have said before that even on Solana, I prefer targets that can hold for a bit longer. A week has passed, and $Candle has rebounded again and even achieved an ATH (except for just opening).
Today I unexpectedly ranked second on the Cooking list. I searched through the dog groups, and surprisingly, there were no discussions among Chinese users; it seems I’m the only one still drilling. 😂😂😂
Yesterday, I saw their announcement that this week they will finally have their first live broadcast. Their efficiency really cannot be compared to domestic teams, but who can blame them when the founder has a background and resources?
Someone dug deep into the founder of candledottv - Andrew Lee, who has been a blockchain entrepreneur since 2014. Many people like me probably remember a project called Handshake, which airdropped 85% of its coins to the open-source community back then, which was quite impressive. Yes, I was also surprised that Candle turned out to be his third project.
Another reason that allows me to hold on without being washed out is:
$Candle has a close relationship with the Jup system, with partners including Moonshot, Jupiter, and Meteora.
Adding to this, over the past long period, I have been observing suspected market maker addresses accumulating positions, and they have already spent at least 1M. Moreover, they repeatedly crashed and pulled back, basically washing out the impatient big players.
So I will continue to hold on until they start their live broadcast before deciding on the next step. Anyway, my medium position has already more than doubled. To be honest, the performance is indeed a bit lacking, but compared to the brutal period of $launchtoken before its name change, $Candle has been much more merciful.
Thinking back to the night when $ACT collapsed, I sold 2% of my $Lanuchtoken holdings (valued at 8M at its peak) in despair with my brothers. This time, I’ll hold more steadily. Dream Big.
