Recently, the U.S. credit rating has faced another blow. Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, joining the ranks of S&P and Fitch, which had already taken action. The U.S., once viewed globally as the 'most reliable debtor,' is now downgraded by three top rating agencies in a row, marking a substantial phase in the weakening of the dollar's credit system. For Bitcoin investors, this is not alarmism, but possibly a rare historical turning point.

The U.S. fiscal deficit is climbing, with total federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and interest payments skyrocketing, while Congress continues to argue over tax cuts and more spending. In this context, the global market is beginning to truly realize: the dollar is not 'forever safe,' and the U.S. is not 'infinitely overdrawn.' Investors naturally begin to seek alternatives, and Bitcoin is becoming a dark horse in this 'great escape from safe-haven assets.'

After the credit rating downgrade, traditional safe-haven assets like gold surged, while Bitcoin's response, though more volatile, also shows its 'digital gold' potential. If gold was a safe haven during turbulent times in the past, then in the future, Bitcoin—possessing a transparent algorithm, absolute scarcity, and decentralization—may gradually replace this role.

Meanwhile, Trump's trade policy is stirring the situation again. He advocates imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods, and a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese goods. This not only means that the global supply chain is hit hard again but may also push the U.S. into a stagflation pit of 'inflation + economic downturn.' In this situation, the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma: if they cut interest rates, inflation may surge again; if they don't cut rates, economic growth may stall. Thus, Powell chose the safest approach—wait and see.

The problem is, the market won't wait. The stock market is scared, the bond market is scared, the dollar is scared, but Bitcoin is not scared. Each policy reversal and power struggle further shakes the trust in fiat currency, opening up space for decentralized assets.

Within the Federal Reserve, a possible transformation of the monetary policy framework is brewing, abandoning the obsession with the 'average inflation target' and instead responding more flexibly to the reality. This may mean that even if inflation does not temporarily return to 2%, as long as the data is 'close enough,' rate cuts are not impossible. Historical experience tells us that once the Fed starts to inject liquidity, Bitcoin is the most sensitive of the 'rising pioneers.'

If the Fed opens a rate-cutting cycle in the future, combined with the trade war damaging the dollar's global credit, crypto assets are likely to welcome a 'policy-driven bull market.' At that time, Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is just the beginning, and $150,000 is not a fantasy.

Of course, risks cannot be ignored. If inflation remains persistently high, the Federal Reserve may unexpectedly raise interest rates again; or Trump might take drastic measures to overturn Powell, leading to a policy vacuum; or global regulations may suddenly tighten, all of which could lead to severe fluctuations in Bitcoin, with significant short-term pullbacks.

So the strategy is clear:

1. Long-term: Continue dollar-cost averaging and hold core positions. The macro logic of Bitcoin has never been so clear.

2. Mid-term: Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate trends, and once they turn dovish, increase allocations.

3. Short-term: Volatility is amplified, key support at $95,000, resistance at $105,000; any pullback is an opportunity to increase positions.

The credit of the dollar is collapsing, while the credit of Bitcoin is rising. This bull market may not just be about capital, but about a shift in faith. $150,000 is not out of reach; it is merely a light in the cracks of the new era's monetary order.