Background and Market Overview: Dogecoin [DOGE] has retraced 19% since last weekend, providing an interesting opportunity for buyers. Additionally, retail investor interest has revived, as concluded from the surge in the number of new addresses on-chain during the price decline. However, strong bullish market sentiment may face deeper pullbacks. A narrowing MVRV ratio indicates that the memecoin is still undervalued.
Market Sentiment: Greed driven by altcoin season
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has soared to 74, reflecting a highly greedy market sentiment. Ethereum has doubled after the Pectra upgrade, igniting the altcoin season, driving OP (+25%), UNI (+30%), and other ecosystem tokens like Zora to recover. Users on Platform X predict DOGE could reach $0.65-$1, an increase of 180%, with some claiming that the 'head and shoulders bottom' breakout indicates a bull market. Coinglass data shows 75% of accounts are bullish, overwhelming bearish sentiment, while on-chain data from THERANOS indicates a 'breakout and retest' pattern, suggesting the speculative frenzy is not over. However, analysts warn that if trading volume does not recover, it could trigger 'panic selling,' especially with Ethereum ecosystem tokens stealing the spotlight.
Dogecoin has pulled back for a week but has re-established a bullish structure on lower time frames. Source: WeChat public account Feng Baobao roasting sweet potatoes.
Despite a brief pullback, the daily chart indicates that Dogecoin is still expected to rise further. The pullback last week provided a rare buying opportunity for investors, especially against the backdrop of renewed interest from retail investors. However, market reactions are mixed, and sluggish trading volume raises concerns.
Recent performance indicates that despite DOGE forming a bullish structure, the high selling pressure at the $0.26 level has hindered bullish momentum. Specifically, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains below February's peak, suggesting a possible need to reassess trading strategies.
However, indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain above 50, supporting a continued bullish argument. Notably, after the price rose from $0.164 to $0.26, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level has become a key support at $0.212.
Source: DOGE/USDT on TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the price has broken through the recent lower high of $0.229, confirming buying strength, although buy volume is weak. If trading volume does not increase significantly, a decline to the $0.212 level may be considered.
Additionally, Coinglass data shows that the buying and selling volumes are tending to balance, indicating that market sentiment is becoming balanced in the short term. This data highlights the unique position of bullish traders, who currently account for 75% of total accounts, contrasting sharply with bearish views.
A $1 feast or a $0.212 collapse?
Ethereum's rally has triggered a altcoin season, with OP, UNI, and Zora signals indicating a recovery phase. DOGE's lagging may bring over 100% gains. The bullish structure, 75% long positions, and whale bets make DOGE likely to break through $0.26, potentially reaching $0.30 or $1 (if the ETF is approved). However, sluggish trading volume and weak OBV warnings suggest that if momentum stalls, it could decline to $0.212. Investors need to pay attention to Ethereum's movements, changes in trading volume, and on-chain signals (such as THERANOS's 'sustainability of the rally'). In this altcoin frenzy, DOGE is like a wild horse, ready to charge towards glory or crash down.
