Today on 519, I’m not afraid; although Ethereum's daily chart is down and Bitcoin is at risk of a sharp drop and sideways movement, I’m not panicking. But a few days ago, Trump said good things are coming, and today, Brother Sun also hinted that 'something big is coming.' As someone fully invested in spot, I suddenly feel a little anxious. When those two come together, it always feels like something unusual is about to happen—mystical predictions have always been accurate.
Last night, Bitcoin attempted to rise twice, peaking at 107,000, but was strongly suppressed by the bears, currently hovering around the 105,000 mark. The battle between bulls and bears has entered a heated stage.
The entire market is focused on whether Bitcoin can break through its historical high. If successful, the market may accelerate significantly, and altcoins are likely to experience substantial increases, rebuilding confidence, making opportunities in the second half of the year worth anticipating.
Is the phase of altcoin adjustment nearing its end?
This round of altcoins has generally adjusted nearly 30%, most have retraced to the top of the second wave of increases, which is a healthy technical correction. If the downtrend continues subsequently, it may damage the original upward structure, requiring cautious response.
Currently, it is advisable to try a small position for exploratory entry, especially paying attention to the positive news of Fusaka's online development, which is expected to enhance L2 scalability, reduce Ethereum costs, and provide new momentum for modular narratives. Related tokens like OP, ARB, ZK, etc., may gain popularity due to technical catalysts.
The meme sector has rebounded strongly, but most of it is a rebound from overselling. The real entry point still needs to wait for Ethereum to stabilize, at which point the next main upward phase may begin.
Let’s continue to look at the situations of several altcoin potential coins:
XRP
According to Coinglass data, open interest has slightly decreased by 0.26%, while derivatives trading volume has increased by 48%, indicating active short-term trading, but long-term confidence remains limited, possibly due to the market preparing for the upcoming new contracts.
CME plans to launch XRP and micro-XRP futures on May 19, currently awaiting regulatory approval. The new contracts will be cash-settled based on the CME XRP/USD index, corresponding to 50,000 and 2,500 XRP.
From a technical perspective, XRP is in a consolidation phase, with neutral RSI and MACD signals. It is currently maintaining above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a stable long-term trend. Support is at $2.30, and if it breaks or tests the $2 area; resistance is at $2.60, and if it breaks through, it may challenge the highs above $2.80.
Institutional entry and the launch of new futures may provide momentum for XRP to break out of consolidation, with volatility expected to return in the near term.
$TRUMP
On May 22 (Thursday), the top 220 holders of $TRUMP will dine with the former president who supports cryptocurrency, and the top 25 will also have the opportunity to visit the White House and meet exclusively. This real-world event reinforces the narrative of the project merging loyalty, political identity, and financial speculation, also triggering high market attention to its price trend.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of $TRUMP is at the end of a typical symmetrical triangle consolidation, indicating an impending directional breakout. The current price is fluctuating around $12.78, and if it effectively breaks $13 and closes above it, bullish targets will successively point to $16.90, $23.64, or even $28.63, with a maximum increase of 124%.
But risks also exist. If the dinner fails to meet expectations, it could trigger a 'sell the news' market, potentially causing prices to fall below the critical support level of $10.12 and further drop to $8, a nearly 38% correction. Historical cases of similar situations are not uncommon, such as the movement of Dogecoin after Elon Musk's appearance on SNL in 2021.
Conclusion: Thursday may become a turning point for $TRUMP's trend, with both news and technical aspects resonating, requiring close attention to trading volume and key price level breakouts.
DOGE
DOGE has recently rebounded strongly after reaching the demand zone, breaking the short-term downtrend structure and forming higher highs, with a short-term bullish technical outlook. It is currently approaching the key resistance zone of 0.235–0.24, which has formed resistance multiple times; if successfully broken, it may open up upward space, with short-term targets looking towards 0.30, and medium to long term could even challenge 0.95.
If the price is blocked and falls back in the resistance zone, support should be watched in the 0.18–0.20 range. In terms of short-term strategy, it is recommended to wait for a stable position above 0.24 before considering entry, with stop losses set below 0.20; for medium to long term, one can gradually build positions after confirming a breakout, with targets still at 0.30 and 0.95. During operations, attention should be paid to changes in trading volume, and one should not blindly chase highs at key resistance points to avoid pullback risks.
