Today is May 19, 2025, and Bitcoin broke the $107,000 barrier last night, just $2,000 away from its historical high.
Four years ago today, due to the domestic cryptocurrency ban, the market crashed; Bitcoin fell from $50,000 to about $30,000, Ethereum plummeted 40% in a single day, and altcoins were in a sea of blood.
Four years later, looking at the prices of those altcoins back then compared to their current performance, it's hard not to feel a sense of nostalgia.
EOS was $4.3 back then, now it's only $0.76.
ETC fell from $42 to $17.63.
FIL was once $61, now it's only $2.75.
ICP dropped from $89 to $5.08.
…
I don't know how everyone feels, but I increasingly think that altcoins are just working for Bitcoin. Various reasons have led to fewer Bitcoins in the hands of Chinese people, while altcoins are becoming more and more abundant, ultimately being harvested by Wall Street wave after wave.
Bitcoin has broken the $100,000 barrier; looking back at these altcoins, it really feels like playing in the crypto world is getting harder.
If Bitcoin was still in a low bear market, it would be an opportunity no matter how you buy, and the risk would be much lower.
But now the situation is different; Bitcoin has been hovering at high positions, and once it retraces, altcoins often drop along with it. In this case, the risk of buying altcoins is much greater than when Bitcoin is at lower levels.
So recently I've started doing some swing contracts with mainstream coins, mainly Litecoin and Ethereum. Altcoins will only be purchased in moderation after a significant Bitcoin correction.
I play contracts not as a gambler; I won't infinitely amplify stop-loss and positions like Liang Xi but will control positions well and remain flexible. The biggest advantage of contracts is flexibility, with immediate execution for buying and selling. A few days ago, I was still going long, and last night when I saw the price spike, I decisively seized two short opportunities.
Let's talk about how to trade altcoins in the future:
In the future, all altcoins will be pumped during high-risk periods, and there won't be opportunities to buy altcoins safely at low points like in 2021, or during the 2023-2024 period.
The so-called risk period is when Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are at high positions, combined with a volatile environment like Trump's, which creates a bull market for altcoins; this is actually the most difficult stage to operate in.
If you want to earn money from altcoins in the future, you have to dance on the edge of a knife, always bearing these risks.
Moreover, many mainstream altcoin market makers choose to start pumping after Bitcoin has risen for a while; this is actually a kind of wash trading technique. Many coins have this pattern, with ETC being a typical representative.
Everyone think about it; doesn't it feel quite similar?
So the best approach is to avoid these coins as much as possible, or even not touch them at all.
Many people are currently dumping altcoins; previously it was panic selling, and recently it's been selling during a rebound at high positions.
Overall, altcoins are indeed disappointing, but after a period of continued selling by retail investors, we can't rule out a bull market brought on by VCs. To participate, one can only control their positions and focus on swing trading mainstream coins.
Finally, let's talk about the difference between today, May 19, and May 19, 2021:
2021 was the end of the frenzied bull market cycle; altcoins rose significantly, so they fell even harder.
At that time, domestic policies were one-size-fits-all, suppressing cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin holdings are relatively dispersed, with many retail investors and few ETFs and institutions.
It's completely different now; if Bitcoin dares to halve, that just gives away chips, so at most, we have panic selling like today.
Today's market decline is also related to the U.S. Treasury Secretary saying, 'Failed negotiations will restore reciprocal tariffs,' combined with Trump's recent mention of 'new tariffs,' which intensified panic. The Nasdaq fell all morning, and U.S. stocks will likely open lower tonight.
Overall, Ethereum's trend is weak, breaking through the normal oscillation range, but I think this is a panic sell targeted at domestic retail investors by the market makers, and there is hope for a rebound after tonight.
If you've been active in Virtuals recently, you should have noticed that the team just released a super important major update:
They have integrated Kaito and launched a super comprehensive Yapper leaderboard, specifically rewarding top Yapper and Kaito stakers with points.
Tokenomics has also been upgraded; now 20% of points are allocated to veVIRTUAL stakers rather than directly to token holders.
This change has closely tied the interests of long-term supporters—those willing to lock $VIRTUAL—with the protocol (Virtuals also has a proxy team). It reminds me of the xGRAIL tokenomics from the previous Arb season and the ve(3,3) model used by Velodrome and Aerodrome on OP and Base.
Since 2021, I have been involved in various trends, and the most important lesson I've learned is: no matter the situation, especially with veTokenomics models, don't lock all tokens tightly; that's really not a wise operation.
Why?
In simple terms, the value of $VIRTUAL relies on trading fees; the more people trade on its platform, the more valuable it becomes. The more projects there are and the more innovative and fun the features, the more people are willing to trade on Virtuals.
Then there's the 'Virgen points'; this is something you must have to participate in the Genesis launch. You need to actively trade, hold, or lock proxy tokens long-term, or hold $VIRTUAL (according to previous rules) to obtain them. $BIOS is a big example; this star project that surged a hundredfold attracted many builders and traders, and everyone rushed into Virgen, forming a virtuous cycle.
Virgen points are now called 'digital gold,' valued between $0.012 and $0.034. For example, if you earn 100,000 points daily, and assuming you invest points in successful projects, you could earn $1,200 to $3,400 daily.
Let's go back to why I think maximum locking is not a good idea:
1. No launch platform can remain hot forever—popularity and storytelling fluctuate like waves, influenced by many factors. The Virtuals team is good at storytelling, but in the face of competition, no one knows how long this wave of enthusiasm will last.
2. There is a daily 'usable' threshold for points (based on the wallet). For example, if you lock 150,000 $VIRTUAL and receive 150,000 veVIRTUAL, you can earn 1.5 million to 1.8 million points daily. Brother, earning so many points is not useful; just enough is fine.
3. There are also hidden liquidity costs. Token prices rise and fall cyclically; when they rise quickly, you can't sell in time, and profits slip away. When they fall back down, the opportunity is gone. Nothing can rise forever; the key is whether you can seize the maximum profit.
To emphasize again, looking at the data, you will find that point returns highly depend on the quality of the projects you invest in, the popularity of the projects (how many points go in), and how high the fully diluted valuation can rise after the launch. Choosing the right projects is key; if you choose well, the value of the points will be high.
How much $VIRTUAL should I lock? How should I arrange the strategy?
In the worst-case scenario, $AXR requires 4 million points to reach the full quota. If you earn 400,000 points daily, sticking to it for a week to a week and a half will be enough. This is roughly equivalent to locking 50,000 $VIRTUAL for two years.
In a benchmark scenario, $WHIM requires 820,000 points to reach the full quota, and earning about 100,000 points daily is roughly sufficient. This is equivalent to locking 10,000 $VIRTUAL for two years.
The rule of thumb is to earn 100,000 to 400,000 points daily, ensuring that within a week you can gather enough points to participate in launches ranging from medium to extremely hot.
As for whether to partially lock the maximum $VIRTUAL or fully lock it for the medium term, it's up to your own strategy. But it's recommended to maintain a balance between liquidity and locking, responding flexibly to market conditions and taking profits in a timely manner when $VIRTUAL continues to rise.
How specifically to play?
I only lock 5-10% of $VIRTUAL as veVIRTUAL to ensure I can accumulate enough points daily to obtain the full quota for popular launches. The remaining 95% remains liquid for timely selling to profit during favorable market conditions.
Assuming I earn 250,000 points daily, with a good project selection and timely exits, if each point is worth $0.022, it equals earning $5,500 daily, and I can recoup my investment in 5 days.
In the worst-case scenario, each point is worth $0.01, earning $2,750 daily, recouping the investment in 9 days.
I only engage in projects with optimal point value, short-term trading, and hold top projects long-term with diamond hands. The goal is to gradually accumulate more $VIRTUAL, treating Genesis launches and Virgen points as tools to make money with $VIRTUAL.
Remember, always calculate clearly before investing; don't lock everything just because you're afraid of missing out (FOMO); that's the worst choice.
Moreover, investing in Virtuals feels more like 'trading' rather than traditional tech investment (at least for now); remember that you are investing in micro-projects with ultra-small market caps, which have explosive growth potential but also risks.