Three major cycles of industry development
Every industry will go through **innovation, bubble, and maturity** phases, and the crypto industry is no exception.
1. Innovation phase (2009-2016)
- Characteristics: New technologies emerge, but most people cannot understand them and even consider them scams.
- Example: In the early days of Bitcoin, 10,000 coins could only buy 2 pizzas, and a few people quietly laid out their plans.
- Opportunity: True disruptors often enter the scene when no one is paying attention.
2. Bubble phase (2017-2022)
- Characteristics: Speculation frenzy, prices soar and plummet, a large number of projects emerge but most are unreliable.
- Role: The bubble brings more attention to the industry and accelerates the dissemination of technology.
- Example: The 2017 ICO craze, the 2021 NFT and DeFi boom.
3. Maturity phase (2023-present)
- Characteristics: The bubble recedes, the industry returns to rationality, and truly valuable projects begin to land.
- Sign:
✅ Early investors have completed wealth accumulation
✅ Investment style shifts from 'betting on getting rich' to being steady
✅ Projects must solve real needs and cannot rely solely on speculation
✅ Regulations are gradually clarifying, compliance is becoming a trend
Six major opportunities in the next cycle
1. PayFi (blockchain payments)
- Current situation: In the past 10 years, mobile payments (Alipay, WeChat) have replaced cash.
- Future: Blockchain payments (e.g., USDT, Lightning Network) will be more efficient:
🔹 Global instant transactions, with no border restrictions
🔹 Decentralized, users truly control their funds
🔹 Low cost, cheaper than traditional cross-border payments
2. AI + Crypto (combination of artificial intelligence and blockchain)
Five major combinations of AI and blockchain:
1. AI service on-chain settlement: Using cryptocurrency to pay for AI computing power (e.g., Render Network).
2. Decentralized AI training: Prevent data tampering, ensure transparency of AI models (e.g., Bittensor).
3. Data incentives: Users contribute data to earn token rewards (e.g., Ocean Protocol).
4. AI on-chain assistant: AI helps you manage wallets, analyze markets (e.g., Fetch.ai).
5. AI anti-counterfeiting verification: Using blockchain to verify the authenticity of AI-generated content (e.g., Worldcoin).
3. RWA (Real Assets on Blockchain)
- Concept: Turning traditional assets like stocks, real estate, and bonds into blockchain tokens.
- Trend:
✅ Giants like Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, etc., have entered the market
✅ Increase liquidity, lower investment thresholds
✅ Check out the implemented RWA projects: [mystonks.org](http://mystonks.org)
4. New token issuance platforms (ISO model)
- Traditional issues: In the past, the threshold for issuing coins was low, leading to a proliferation of worthless coins.
- New trend (ISO model):
🔹 Real-name teams with genuine project plans
🔹 Compliance, similar to early equity investments
🔹 On-chain + off-chain integration, tokens represent equity or revenue rights
5. Next-generation DEX (decentralized exchanges)
Future DEX needs to have:
✔ Non-custodial: Users control their own assets
✔ Supports RWA: Can trade real assets like stocks and bonds
✔ Cross-chain trading: One-click exchange of assets across different chains
✔ DAO governance: Community jointly manages the liquidity pool
✔ Compliance: Supports KYC but does not sacrifice decentralization
6. Memecoin
- Why does it still exist?
🔸 Easy to enter, attracting new users
🔸 Fast dissemination, easy to form community consensus
🔸 Strong cultural attributes (e.g., Dogecoin, Pepe the Frog)
- But popularity will decline:
❌ Old players are no longer fervent, capital shifts to stable investments
❌ It is very difficult to see another DOGE or SHIB-level hundredfold coin
❌ More for entertainment rather than mainstream investment
Summary: The industry has entered the 'construction phase'
✅ Opportunities in **PayFi, AI + Crypto, RWA, compliant DEX** and other areas
✅ Investment logic shifts from 'speculation' to 'real needs'
✅ Regulation is becoming increasingly important, compliant projects have more long-term value
（Investment involves risks, please participate rationally）
BTC
Daily closing at 106454, just short of the key position of 106457, so still observing, cautiously chasing the rise! Currently, if the retracement to 104200-103285 does not break, continue upwards! If the retracement to 102000-101383 does not break, continue high-level fluctuations! If it breaks, a correction will begin! First look for short-term support at 99600-99000!
ETH
The market is in a long squeeze, with shorts exploding and longs being liquidated! Market liquidity is being adjusted and raided! It's tough! Respect the technical aspects! Currently watching for buying opportunities on a second retracement to 2355-2274, stop loss if broken, waiting for positions at 2245-2184! Current rebound pressure at 2540-2587!
SOL
Yesterday's position 167 was accurately targeted! Currently watching if 164 will break! If it breaks, wait for buying opportunities at 160-156! Current pressure at 175-176!
The information and data mentioned in the content come from publicly available materials and strive for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice; invest at your own risk!
