I originally planned to start taking profits gradually from this week for my spot positions and low-multiple medium to long positions. The longer the market goes on, the greater the risk factor.
In a post from a few days ago, it was mentioned that this round of Shanzhai's bullish market may be driven by a monthly level rebound B wave. Many people have questions about why during this bullish market, many Shanzhai suddenly started with a V-shaped reversal without any accumulation period. This is because rebound B waves often do not accumulate; they start quickly, tempting people to chase high, and the trend seems very strong, only to complete a downward C wave afterwards.
The wave theory itself is also subjective; my judgment may not be correct. I also hope that this round of bullish market is not a rebound B wave, but a new round of 'Shanzhai Season'. Whether it is a new round of 'Shanzhai Season' or a market driven by a rebound B wave, this bullish trend is worth participating in. However, always being prepared for the 'worst-case scenario' is a rational approach that every trader should have. Last night, $ETH suddenly dipped, causing many Shanzhai that had just started a new wave of upward trends yesterday to suddenly collapse, making the subsequent market increasingly difficult to judge.
Currently, $BTC above the 107000—109000 range and $ETH above the 2730—2875 range still have a large amount of short liquidity accumulated, and it is very likely that the upcoming market will squeeze shorts and seize this liquidity. However, the divergence in various indicators for BTC and ETH is quite serious right now; to digest this divergence, a very strong upward movement is needed to continue the bullish market. Of course, this is not impossible.
But if the follow-up is simply to eliminate the last bit of short liquidity above and surge again, will Shanzhai continue to follow the trend? Or will it create a false breakout together? Will weaker Shanzhai only form a secondary high point? The answers to these questions are currently unknown.
If this is a brand new bullish market, then a batch of Shanzhai should show the strongest upward main trend wave in the next 1-2 weeks, as indicated by the yellow line in the diagram below. If the market starts to prepare to conclude here, then the subsequent market trend will likely resemble the blue line shown.
In short, I personally will begin to gradually take profits and exit, moving the remaining positions to break-even stop-loss. Whether it is a contract long position or a spot position, it is best to have strict stop-losses at all times. When the market comes, be bold in entering; when the market goes, decisively exit without any regrets.
When the bullish market ends, it becomes a bearish market, and when the bearish market ends, a new upward cycle begins. Go long during the rise and short during the fall. The market repeats itself, and there are always trading opportunities. The above is for everyone's reference.
