🔍 Event Review
Recently, Ethereum (ETH) has shown extremely impactful short-term volatility in the crypto market. At 06:10, the ETH price hovered around $2375 to $2389, then rapidly surged, with a cumulative increase of over 5% within a short time, breaking through key high levels. Meanwhile, discussions about macroeconomic data and policy adjustments continue in the market, intertwined with factors such as media, live broadcasters, and institutional fund battles, collectively driving the dramatic volatility in the market. Voices like 'Hidden-Alvin,' who reported losses and temporarily closed their live streams, also confirmed the sudden change in market sentiment, making market participants particularly attentive to short-term trends.
🕒 Timeline Review
06:10: Market launch. ETH price hovers between $2375 and $2389, showing initial signs of a surge.
06:32: Feedback during the live broadcast reported that the price touched 2380 points, and some traders paused the live broadcast due to intensified loss sentiment, but the market quickly reversed afterward.
07:06: The U.S. released April CPI data below expectations, along with a high probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June, providing support for market sentiment improvement.
07:22: A large number of bearish Ethereum options purchases appeared in the options market, indicating that some investors are adopting hedging strategies to guard against future volatility.
07:51: Within 101 minutes, the ETH price surged to $2507, with a cumulative increase of 5.53%, significantly strengthening main buying.
08:00: The price further climbed to $2513, showing strong upward momentum.
08:15: The subsequent brief adjustment caused the ETH price to fall back to $2460.01, leading the market into a phase of oscillation and consolidation.
🔍 Reason Analysis
The sharp fluctuations in the ETH market are mainly composed of the following two core factors:
Uncertainty in macro policy and economic data
Recent adjustments in U.S.-China trade policies, including slight tariff adjustments, have led to changes in global capital allocation.
U.S. economic data (such as April CPI being below expectations) and market expectations of Federal Reserve policy direction have caused rapid fluctuations in market risk appetite, driving a reallocation of funds.
Internal technical signals and institutional fund operations
Technical indicators show that there have been key breakout and pullback signals during the rapid rise from low to high.
The frequent inflows and outflows of large accounts and institutional funds, along with automated trading system operations, have further intensified the short-term buying and selling sentiment and volatility in the market.
These two major factors interact with each other, constrained by the external macro environment and accompanied by the internal buying and selling forces, jointly creating the current oscillating market for ETH.
📊 Technical Analysis
Based on the 45-minute K-line chart of the Binance USDT perpetual contract for ETH/USDT technical analysis, the current market performance is as follows:
RSI Indicator: After breaking below the 50 midline, it has begun to decline, indicating that selling pressure is gradually increasing in the short term.
Bollinger Bands Operation: Prices have begun to cross downwards through the middle band, signaling a bearish outlook.
Volume Change: During the price increase process, trading volume increased by 26.82%, indicating higher market activity; at the same time, the 10-day and 20-day average trading volumes rose by 12.16% and 22.37% respectively, suggesting strong trading sentiment in the short to medium term.
Moving Average Status: The price is currently encountering resistance near MA50 and is overall below the EMA20/50/120 moving averages, indicating a long-term bearish trend; EMA5/10/20/50/120 are in a bearish arrangement, further reinforcing short-term downward pressure.
MACD and TD Sequential: The MACD histogram shows an increase in bullish momentum, but TD Sequential is currently in the bullish Setup phase (6/9), suggesting a potential initial reversal.
Overall, although there are some strengthening signals in the short term, the technical outlook still reveals risks of high-level oscillation and periodic profit-taking.
🔮 Market Outlook
The current ETH market has entered a correction phase after experiencing a significant surge, with the overall market in a state of flux. In the future, investors should pay attention to the following points:
Macroeconomic Environment: The release of any macroeconomic data or policy information may quickly affect market sentiment. If U.S. and global economic data show signs of improvement, or if there are further positive moves in U.S.-China trade policy, ETH is expected to gain support at high levels.
Technical Key Position: Whether the key moving averages (such as MA50, EMA20/50/120) can hold their resistance levels will directly influence the short-term trend; at the same time, if indicators like MACD and RSI show clearer reversals, it may signal the start of a new market cycle.
Institutional Fund Movement: On-chain large transaction data and explosive order conditions indicate frequent operations by institutional funds and large accounts. If we observe sustained net inflows of funds in the future, it will provide short-term support for ETH; conversely, profit-taking at high levels or cash-out pressure may lead to further adjustments.
In conclusion, although ETH currently shows a strong upward momentum, under the intertwining influence of macro uncertainty and endogenous technical signals, it may still face a process of oscillation and consolidation in the short term. Investors are advised to remain cautious when grasping entry opportunities, reasonably allocate positions, and closely monitor future key data and technical indicator changes to act in accordance with the trend.
