Ruihui Community News on May 19

1. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June reaches 91.4% [Importance 35%] 
Content: CME interest rate observations show that market expectations for unchanged interest rates in June have risen to 91.4%, and the probability of a rate cut in July has increased to 30.8%. The U.S. April core PCE data will be released tonight at 20:30, with market forecasts predicting a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. 
Analysis: The expectation of high interest rates has been digested by the market, but the significant increase in rate cut probability has greatly improved risk appetite. BTC triggered CTA strategies to programmatic buy after breaking through $105,000, especially if the PCE data is lower than expected or accelerates capital inflow.

2. Whale James Wynn profits $20.41 million on long positions [Importance 30%] 
Content: Whale James Wynn has a floating profit of $3.15 million on a 40x long position in BTC on Hyperliquid, with a floating profit of $19.03 million on kPEPE, bringing the total position value to over $430 million. His post on platform X “Print it” has sparked a market-following effect. 
Analysis: The extremely high leverage positions' floating profit stimulates retail investors' bullish sentiment, but caution is needed regarding the high volatility risk of Meme coins like kPEPE. The current BTC liquidation price of $95,551 is a key support level; a breach could trigger a chain liquidation wave.

3. Tornado Cash legal controversy escalates [Importance 20%] 
Content: The defense team of Tornado Cash co-founder accused the prosecution of concealing key communications from FinCEN, emphasizing that non-custodial protocols do not constitute money transmission businesses. The Samourai Wallet case shows an increasing tolerance of the judicial system towards decentralized tools. 
Analysis: If the court accepts the defense's evidence, it may weaken the SEC's regulatory jurisdiction over DeFi protocols, benefiting the privacy coin sector. However, short-term market focus remains on BTC's main upward trend, with delayed impacts from the event.

4. Pyth token unlocks $340 million next week [Importance 15%] 
Content: On May 19, Pyth will unlock 21.25% of tokens (worth $340 million), mainly used for ecological incentives and developer rewards. The current circulating market cap / fully diluted market cap ratio (FDV Ratio) is only 28%, indicating significant selling pressure risk. 
Analysis: The oracle sector faces short-term liquidity shocks, but in the long term, ecological incentives may enhance protocol usage. It is recommended that investors reduce holdings of related altcoins before the unlock and shift towards BTC/ETH core assets for risk aversion.

5. Michael Saylor hints at increasing BTC holdings [Importance 10%] 
Content: MicroStr