In the crypto market, the moments when BTC transitions between cycles are always significant opportunities for medium and long-term investors. One of the strongest indicators reflecting that transition is: Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator (developed by CryptoQuant).
What does the current chart show?
BTC has officially exited the Bear Market (blue) and transitioned to the Early Bull zone (green) – a highly significant sign in the history of growth cycles.
WHY IS THIS A STRONG SIGNAL?
1. Repeating behavior in the past:
If we look back at the cycles:
2015: BTC left the Bear zone → Early Bull → increased by over +2,000%
2019: Early Bull signal appears → BTC rises from ~$3,000 to ~$14,000
2020–2021: Early Bull → Bull → Overheated Bull → BTC peaked at ~$69,000
Every time BTC enters the green zone (Early Bull) is a precursor to a prolonged upcycle of 12–18 months, with increases of hundreds of percent.
2. Converging technical factors:
- MA200 and MA365 are trending upwards again – a sign of a long-term trend reversal
- Long-term RSI has not yet reached the overbought zone – there is still room for price increase
- On-chain capital shows signs of returning after a period of stagnation
MACRO PERSPECTIVE:
BTC has just completed its halving, and the Fed is in the final phase of the monetary tightening cycle. As monetary policy begins to shift, liquidity will return to strong speculative assets like crypto. And this time, the market also has:
- The participation of spot BTC ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity…
- BTC is classified as a strategic investment by major banks
The 2020 cycle is the story of DeFi – NFT
The 2024–2025 cycle may tell the story of AI + Crypto, ETF + On-chain Finance