Based on the latest market dynamics and analysis, here are the trading ideas and strategy suggestions for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) on May 18, 2025:
1. Bitcoin (BTC) Operational Strategy
Current Technical Form and Key Levels
1. Price Range and Support Resistance
- Support Level: $101,000-$102,000 (area where the uptrend line coincides with the 50-day moving average);
- Resistance Level: $104,000 (short-term resistance), $105,000-$106,000 (key short selling layout area);
- Medium to Long-term Target: If it breaks through $106,000, it may challenge $110,000-$120,000.
2. Market Signals
- Institutional Fund Inflow: BlackRock ETF continues to increase its holdings, with a net inflow of 2,494 BTC on May 15, supporting a long-term bullish logic;
- On-chain Data: 97% of BTC holdings are in profit, but there is no large-scale selling, indicating strong holding confidence.
Operational Strategy
1. Pullback Buying Strategy
- Entry Conditions: Price stabilizes in the $101,000-$102,000 range, accompanied by long lower shadows or RSI rebound signals;
- Target: $104,000 (short-term), look towards $105,000-$106,000 after breaking through;
- Stop Loss: Strictly set below $100,500, with position control at 10%-20%.
2. Breakout Follow-up Strategy
- Entry Conditions: If the price stabilizes above $104,000 and trading volume increases;
- Target: $105,000-$106,000, add positions after breaking through;
- Stop Loss: Below $102,000.
3. Risk Warning
- Beware of technical pullback risks; if there are multiple failures to break through $106,000, it may trigger a short-term top;
- Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on May 22 and the potential volatility from Bitcoin futures expiration (May 24).
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2. Ethereum (ETH) Operational Strategy
#### Current Technical Form and Key Levels
1. Price Range and Support Resistance
- Support Level: $2,450-$2,500 (recent breakthrough neckline);
- Resistance Level: $2,600 (short-term resistance), $2,850-$3,000 (medium to long-term target);
- Extreme Pullback Risk: If it falls below $2,400, it may drop to $2,300-$2,350.
2. Market Catalysts
- Pectra Upgrade: Enhances network efficiency and optimizes Layer 2 performance, driving ecosystem activity (e.g., Base network monthly transaction volume reached 244 million transactions);
- Institutional Movements: BTCS company raises $57.8 million to increase its ETH holdings, with an annualized staking yield of 3%-5%, enhancing market confidence.
Operational Strategy
1. Short-term Band Strategy
- Long Position Conditions: Price stabilizes and rebounds in the $2,450-$2,500 range, targeting $2,600;
- Short Selling Conditions: If it falls below $2,450 and the daily line is bearish, target $2,300-$2,350;
- Stop Loss: Set long positions below $2,400 and short positions above $2,500.
2. Medium to Long-term Layout
- Accumulation Range: Buy in batches in the $2,200-$2,400 range, targeting $3,000-$4,000 (analysts predict 2025 target);
- Position Allocation: It is recommended that ETH account for 30%-35% of the crypto asset portfolio to diversify risk with BTC.
3. Risk Warning
- Pay attention to the SEC's approval progress for the Ethereum ETF (results may be available before the end of May), potential bullish or bearish outcomes may trigger violent fluctuations;
- There is a risk of a technical divergence, caution is needed for a rapid pullback.
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3. Overall Market Environment and Position Management Suggestions
1. Macroeconomic Factors
- China-US Trade Agreement: Lower tariffs are favorable for risk assets, but attention should be paid to subsequent implementation details;
- Federal Reserve Policy: PPI data decline eases inflationary pressure, but interest rates remain unchanged, market expects rate cuts within the year.
2. Position Control
- Total Position: It is recommended to control it at 45%-55%, reserving cash to deal with pullbacks;
- Leverage Limit: Avoid exceeding 1.5 times to prevent extreme volatility and liquidation.
3. Altcoin Opportunities
- Inscription Track: Recent demand for BTC ecosystem tokens such as ORDI and SATS has significantly increased, but be wary of high-level selling pressure.
- Meme Coins: If PEPE, WIF, etc. pull back to support levels (e.g., PEPE's $0.128), a small position can be taken for a rebound.
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Summary
Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a high-level consolidation phase and need to be operated flexibly in conjunction with support/resistance levels. Focus on low long opportunities in the $101,000-$102,000 support range for Bitcoin, while Ethereum should closely monitor the battle around the neckline of $2,450-$2,500. In the medium to long term, the continuous inflow of institutional funds and the upgrade of the Ethereum ecosystem are the two core support logics, but it is necessary to be wary of policy and technical pullback risks. It is recommended to strictly implement stop losses to avoid heavily betting on one-sided trends.
