First, let's look at two counterintuitive data points (from (The Realm of Clarity)):
1. If you stubbornly hold without stop-loss, 98.8% of losing positions can recover in two weeks.
2. If you stubbornly hold profit positions, 91.3% of profitable positions can earn more in two weeks.
Do you find it contradictory? Clearly holding positions can recover losses, so why do they all end up liquidated? Let me break it down with a bloody history:
🟡 Stage 1: Beginner Welfare Period (Hold 1-3 times)
- Losing money without cutting, and the market indeed rebounds.
- Thinking to myself, 'If I had known not to set stop-loss, I could have earned more.'
- Starting to think stop-loss is a fool's behavior.
🟠 Stage 2: Boiling Frog (Hold 4-5 times)
- The first few times were all manageable.
- This time the floating loss suddenly increased, starting to panic.
- Ultimately, when you cut losses, you find that all the previous gains are wiped out.
(For example, holding a small dip of 50 points is fine, but suddenly losing 200 points causes panic.)
🔴 Stage 3: Crazy Self-Destruction Period (Hold 10 times+)
- Unwilling to accept losses, starting to increase positions to average down costs.
- The more you add positions, the worse the losses become.
- In the end, either you face liquidation or you cut at the lowest point.
- Mentality collapses, wanting to close the account and leave the market.
💣 The Ultimate Truth:
Holding a position is like Russian roulette; the first few pulls of the trigger are blank, but once you encounter a live round, it's over. You might hold successfully 99 times, but just one extreme market situation (like a black swan event) will lead to:
- Capital wiped out.
- Owing money to the platform (leveraged trading).
- Completely lose the capital to turn things around.
🛡️ Why must we stop-loss?
1. Surviving gives you a chance: losing from 100,000 to 50,000 is just a 50% drop, but to recover from 50,000, you need to earn 100%.
2. Prevent single position liquidation: The stock market crash of 2015, negative oil prices in 2020, 312, 519, all specifically treat non-compliance.
3. Maintain trading mindset: Those who see their account down 50% cannot operate rationally.
Remember this iron rule:
"Stop-loss is the registration fee, holding a position is the coffin money. You can afford to pay the registration fee 100 times, but you can't afford the coffin money even once."
BTC
Maintain yesterday's thinking! Pay attention to the key support and resistance areas in the chart for trading opportunities!
If there is a rebound, pay attention to the distribution opportunity at 2560-2620! Current short-term support is 2450-2415, if the rebound does not exceed 2620, target below 2355-2274!
SOL
If the rebound does not exceed 172-174, continue to wait for the buying opportunity around 160-156!
