Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

* Technical Analysis: The 4-hour chart shows $102,500 (EMA120) as key support, with $104,000 as the previous high resistance level. The MACD has crossed above the waterline but volume is shrinking, a breakthrough at $103,800 is needed to confirm the continuation of the rebound.

* Catalysts: Fluctuations in the ETH/BTC exchange rate, leaks on SEC review progress, and subsequent actions from Hong Kong regulators.

* Probability Distribution:

* Rise (Breakthrough $104,500): 40% (Requires continuous strengthening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate + accelerated inflow of ETF funds)

* Fluctuation ($102,500-$103,800): 35% (Bullish and bearish news tug-of-war dominant)

* Decline (Fall below $101,300): 25% (If the altcoin bleeding effect exceeds expectations + regulatory negative effects ferment)

Strategy Recommendation:

* Short-term: Lightly test long positions near $102,800, with a stop-loss at $102,300; if it breaks through $103,500, can chase long positions up to the $104,200 resistance zone.