#bitcoin #PlanB #crypto #CryptoForecast #RiskManagement
$BTC
Overview
Renowned analyst PlanB has reaffirmed his bold forecast that Bitcoin could surge to $400 000, leaning on his Stock-to-Flow market cycle model. First introduced in 2022, the model tracks Bitcoin’s scarcity against its circulating supply; PlanB notes that, unlike prior peaks, there was no “yellow” distribution signal at $82 000 only “red” signals pointing to continued bull momentum
Market Reception
Despite the bullish thesis, many on-chain and technical analysts urge caution. Critics argue that relying solely on historical S2F correlations may overlook macroeconomic shifts and emerging regulatory risks. Some warn that if Bitcoin falters below its 200 week moving average support (currently near $47 000), momentum could stall and trigger a deeper correction
Key Metrics to Watch
RSI Levels: Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index is nearing 70 today, and PlanB expects it to exceed 80 for an extended period an indicator that has historically preceded 40 %+ monthly gains and underpins the $104 000→$400 000 projection
200 Week Moving Average: This long-term support has held during past bear markets. A sustained price above this band often signals continued bull phases
Bitcoin’s RSI | Source: PlanB
Risk Management Takeaways
Stagger Entries: Scale into positions over multiple price points rather than a single lump sum
Define Stop-Loss: Consider stops just below key supports (e.g., the 200WMA) to cap downside
Avoid FOMO: Don’t chase breakouts—wait for confirmations or pullback bounces
Portfolio Balance: Allocate only a portion of capital to aggressive targets; maintain exposure to other assets for stability