your analysis makes a lot of sense to me, although it worries me that in the candles (1 day) MACD is going down, although it is possible that there will be a last push before a prolonged adjustment

$ADA

May 17, 2025 Market Analysis (Not Investment Advice)

Today, ADA/U has moved very typically: attempting to rebound in a downtrend, but still weak, in the "eve of the rebound."

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**Current Price:** 0.7562U
**Opening Point:** 0.7563U
**Stop Loss Level:** 0.7430U (confirmation failure on breakdown)
**Target Level:** 0.7923U
**Profit and Loss Ratio:** 2.71
**Position Setting:** 18796.992
**Direction:** Short-term rebound + trend counterattack

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Let me interpret:

This drop has been quite severe, and although the bears are fierce, after holding the 0.75 level, it has not continued to break lower, but rather "started to consolidate."
Typical intraday signal: "If it can't go down, it's about to go up."
EMA 5 and 20 are very close, indicating a structure that is “brewing for a small breakout”;
MACD is below the zero axis, but the momentum is very thin, a single strong bullish candle could directly cover the previous losses.

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Practical trading strategy tips:
• You can try a small position, with a rebound target of 0.78~0.79;
• The stop loss must be set below 0.7430 to avoid false rebounds;
• If it can break through EMA144 (blue line), it will enter an acceleration phase.

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In one sentence:
"This price is like a person squatting ready to jump, before jumping, you should stand in position."

(The above is only a trading idea and does not constitute investment advice)