[BTC/USDT – 1H Technical Analysis | May 17, 2025]
Current Price: $103,505
BTC is currently in a short-term bearish structure after rejecting from $105,000. The price is consolidating near key support zones, with no clear momentum yet.
Fibonacci Retracement (Swing Low $100,200 – Swing High $104,800):
Price is hovering around the 0.382 level at ~$103,020
Below this, the 0.5 Fib lies at ~$102,500 – strong support
0.618 Fib at ~$101,900 is the last major support before psychological $100,000
If price breaks below $101,900, a fall toward $100K is likely. If it holds above $102,500 and reclaims $104K, bullish recovery could resume.
Moving Averages:
MA5 and MA10 are trending below MA30 → clear short-term bearish crossover
BTC must reclaim MA30 (~$104,000) to flip the bias to neutral or bullish
Volume & RSI:
Volume is declining → signals indecision, neither buyers nor sellers are in full control
RSI is around 42 on 1H → still has room to drop, but if it nears 30, we could expect a short-term technical bounce
Wyckoff Insight:
Price may be in a redistribution range or preparing a spring
If BTC quickly drops below $102K and then reclaims $103K with strong volume, that could be a reversal signal
Conclusion:
I’m not buying at this point. If BTC shows strength and breaks above $105,000, I’ll consider re-entry. If it loses $101,900, I’ll wait for signs of bottoming closer to $100K. Watching price action and volume closely is key now.
Let me know if you’d like a combined BTC + PI market outlook for today.