Bitcoin has been continuing the high-level oscillation trend after an upward surge. This movement is very similar to the trend from the end of April when it rose from $84,000 to around $95,000. The price has strong support at high levels, with repeated high and low boundary fluctuations forming a horizontal step-like shape. After sufficient handover, the price may initiate a new wave of upward movement.
Since the current price is near $104,000, which happens to be near the historical high neckline position from the end of January, and considering that Bitcoin stayed at this position for more than ten trading days at the end of January, there is a lot of trapped buying pressure here. As the price arrives at this point again, retail investors who have been deeply trapped for a long time will have the demand to sell and observe. At the same time, those who bought at the bottom around $80,000 also have selling pressure to take profits before reaching a new high. Therefore, it is very reasonable to understand that the price stays in this area. This is also the reason why the strategy suggested closing profits on medium-term long positions near $94,000.
From the current formation, Bitcoin certainly has the technical pattern of forming a double-top structure. This means that if it oscillates and forms steps here, and there is no new large capital inflow to push new highs, the price may continue to decline below $90,000. Therefore, everyone should prepare for the possibility of a double-top expectation. Another factor is that the speed of the bull market surge is very fast; major players can usually complete a doubling action in about two months. Hence, at the current time node, it feels normal and reasonable to have one more significant pullback before rising to a new high. This trading strategy can dispel market chasing actions, douse the market's enthusiasm, and allow for re-accumulation at the bottom. When the price rises again, long positions will be more cautious and less willing to enter easily, leading to maximum profits when a new high is reached.
Of course, aside from external factors, purely from a technical standpoint, the price is likely to continue maintaining an upward channel, with a high probability of ascending to new heights. Firstly, the current bull market has not yet ended, and the next halving cycle is still far off, making it difficult for a bear market to form so early due to a lack of enthusiasm. Additionally, there are more institutions, companies, and individuals accumulating Bitcoin now. This can create buying pressure and reduce market liquidity, leading to higher price expectations.
In summary, the confidence in a higher price expectation for Bitcoin exists. However, whether it will rise to new highs after the current high-level oscillation lacks sufficient basis for judgment.
For both long and short positions to move more than $10,000 around $105,000, what everyone can do is to remain vigilant and avoid placing high boundary long positions betting on a breakout, as well as chasing short positions at the lower boundary. Instead, using the boundaries of the peaks and troughs to maneuver in the opposite direction is more appropriate. Considering the current situation, for the upcoming operations in the next few days, it is suggested to short in the boundary range of $104,000 to $105,000, with a stop loss at $106,000. For short-term targets, look at $102,000, and for medium-term targets, look below $97,000. It is also recommended to go long in the range of $100,500 to $101,500, with a stop loss at $99,500, targeting $104,000. In the case of an effective breakout that forms a real surge, there will be no medium-term long positions target.
Risk warning: it is not recommended to go long on Bitcoin in the price range of $104,000 to $110,000, as it is a heavy pressure zone. It is difficult to predict which challenge will break through the new high, and the number of failed attempts to break through is greater than that of successful ones. Holding long positions at high levels presents a risk-reward imbalance. The basis for a real surge in Bitcoin is a slight upward price movement, with continuous small to medium bullish candles on the hourly chart stabilizing the price. If it exceeds $110,000 for 48 hours, it indicates that the price has officially initiated a historical process. After that, one can buy long positions in other mainstream altcoins and wait for opportunities for a rebound, which is both safe and has a higher win rate.$BTC 
