As of May 16, ETH prices continued to oscillate, with the latest quote around $2,575, and the intraday fluctuation range narrowed to $2,411-$2,708. Combined with market dynamics and technical indicators, the current trend shows the following characteristics:
1. Short-term technical bullish-bearish game
- Price and trading volume: The recent 4-hour K-line shows a 'bullish engulfing' candle, but overall trading volume decreased by 18%, forming a 'price up, volume down' pattern, indicating insufficient upward momentum and a strong market wait-and-see sentiment. The MACD histogram continues to shrink, KDJ is sticky at a high level, and the 30-minute RSI has fallen back to the neutral zone (57.8), indicating a stalemate between short-term bullish and bearish forces.
- Key level contention: The $2,411 support level has become a dividing line between bulls and bears; if it breaks, further correction to $2,290 may occur. The upper resistance zone is between $2,708 and $2,730, and a breakthrough needs to be accompanied by increased trading volume.
2. On-chain data and institutional trends
- Chip distribution: In the past week, addresses holding over 100 ETH increased by 3.2%, but whales deposited 39,800 ETH (about $103 million) into exchanges, showing that some large holders chose to take profits. The net inflow of 27,200 ETH into U.S. Ethereum ETFs indicates that the long-term bullish logic for institutions remains unchanged.
- Ecological progress: After the Pectra upgrade, network gas fees decreased by 40%, and the total value locked (TVL) in Layer 2 surpassed $45 billion. Base chain processed 244 million transactions in a single month, supporting the fundamentals of ETH.
3. Macroeconomic variables and market sentiment
- Regulatory expectations: The SEC's approval of Ethereum spot ETFs is entering a countdown, with Bloomberg analysts estimating the approval probability rising to 75%. If realized, it could trigger a short-term explosive market.
- Sector linkage: Bitcoin remains oscillating at the high level of $103,000, but the MA5 moving average is turning down; if BTC adjusts, it may drag ETH down. Related sectors like Layer 2 and GameFi generally fell by 7%, indicating a cooling of market risk appetite.
Market outlook
ETH is highly likely to maintain a range-bound adjustment in the short term, and the technical indicators need to correct the overbought condition. If the weekly adjustment does not break the $2,290 support, the medium-term outlook remains hopeful to impact the resistance zone of $2,700-$2,730, relying on ETF benefits and ecological upgrades. Investors should focus on the following variables:
- Regulatory dynamics: Final ETF approval results in May;
- On-chain activity: Can Layer 2 growth drive the restart of the ETH deflationary mechanism;
- Market linkage: Can Bitcoin stabilize at the $100,000 mark?
> Strategy suggestion: Observe the effectiveness of support levels in the short term, and consider accumulating on dips for the medium to long term, with a stop-loss reference of $2,290, targeting above $2,700.
