Current market pattern$BTC

1. Short-term Consolidation Structure

BTC's recent price has been continuously fluctuating in the 102,000-105,000 USDT range, forming a "high-level doji" pattern on the daily chart, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears. The mid-track of the Bollinger Bands at the 4-hour level (around 103,500 USDT) is forming pressure, and the 1-hour K-line has repeatedly failed to break through, showing heavy selling pressure above. If it falls below the 102,000 support level, it may further retreat to the psychological level of 100,000 USDT; if it breaks through the 104,000 resistance, caution is needed for potential false breakouts by major players.

2. Conflicting Technical Indicators

- Bullish Signal: The 4-hour MACD fast and slow lines are close to a golden cross, the EMA120 long-term moving average is still on an upward trend, and the RSI is close to neutral (around 50), showing no obvious overbought/oversold conditions.

- Bearish Signal: The mid-track of the Bollinger Bands at the 1-hour level is under pressure, with long upper shadows on K-lines, and the 4-hour EMA7 and EMA30 moving averages are converging, indicating insufficient short-term momentum.

3. On-chain and Liquidity Data

Short-term holders (STH) have limited profit-taking pressure, not reaching historical extreme levels, supporting the long-term bull market logic. However, the spot market trading volume has shrunk, and large selling pressure is concentrated near 105,000 USDT, so be wary of the risk of sharp declines due to insufficient liquidity.

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Trading Strategy and Risk Control Suggestions

1. Short-term Operations (1-4 hour cycle)

- Bearish Strategy: If the price rebounds to the 103,300-103,800 USDT range, a light short position can be attempted, with a stop loss set above 104,200, targeting down to 102,300-101,300 USDT.

- Bullish Strategy: If the price stabilizes at 102,000 USDT and breaks through 104,000 with volume, a light long position can be taken up to 105,000, with a stop loss set below 101,500.

2. Medium-term Layout (12-24 hour cycle)

- Pullback Buy: If the price falls to 100,000-101,000 USDT (strong support zone), positions can be built in batches, with a stop loss at 99,500, targeting 105,000-108,000.

- Breakout Buy: If it breaks through 105,800 USDT with volume, add positions after a pullback confirmation, targeting above 110,000.

3. Risk Warning

- Avoid frequent trading in the 102,000-104,000 range to prevent capital loss from volatility.

- Pay attention to US stock trends and ETF fund inflow data, as macro sentiment may amplify volatility.

- Control single transaction position within 5% of total capital, with strict stop loss settings.

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Key Support and Resistance

Position Signal Type Operational Significance

105,800 Strong Resistance Breaking through may trigger a bull counterattack

104,000 Continuation Resistance Breakthrough requires volume support

102,000 Bull-Bear Watershed If broken, it opens downward space

100,000 Strong Support Long-term Bull-Bear Division

Summary: The current market is in a high-level consolidation phase, primarily focusing on short-term shorts, while waiting for a correction to position long orders in the medium term. Be cautious of liquidity risks and macro event disturbances, and adjust positions flexibly.