Fundamental Dynamics:
1. FTX is expected to launch its main compensation process on May 30, allocating over $5 billion in funding. Selling some assets to raise compensation funds may create short-term selling pressure on the market; however, the return of compensation payments is expected to enhance market liquidity in the medium term and help restore investor confidence in the long run.
2. Coinbase customer data is suspected to have been hacked since January, with losses potentially reaching up to $400 million. Data security incidents may impact the platform's reputation and stock price.
3. Federal Reserve's Barr warns that tariff-related supply chain disruptions may hinder economic growth and elevate inflation, making the monetary policy outlook more complex.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The daily chart maintains a volatile upward channel, currently in an adjustment phase after the third stage of a rise, close to a dense trading area at historical highs. Funds are noticeably flowing back into BTC, with altcoins generally retreating by 20%, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite. If the high-level consolidation extends and trading volume shrinks, caution is advised regarding the risk of a top being formed.
From the 4-hour chart, it is currently running in the range of 105K to 101K. Yesterday it bounced back after retracing to 1013, and the volatile structure has yet to break. Today, pay attention to the resistance zone above at 1048-1058 and the support level below at 1015-1005.
ETH: The daily chart is under pressure at the 6-month moving average. It experienced a pullback after reaching a high the previous day and rebounded after testing the 7-day moving average support again, entering a rounded top phase structurally. The 4-hour level shows a gradual decrease in rebound highs, with a short-term continuation of a weak volatile pattern. Today, pay attention to the resistance level above at 2600-2640 and the support level below at 2510-2480.
Altcoins: Overall, this week has entered a deep correction, with healthy projects seeing declines controlled within 20%, which is considered a normal adjustment, while weaker projects have generally retreated more than 30%. It is advised not to consider heavy involvement for now. Currently, there are no clear buy signals, and it is recommended to remain cautious and wait for a secondary opportunity to enter.
Market Review and Strategy: Yesterday's price movements were basically in line with expectations, with BTC dipping to a low of 1013 and ETH to a low of 2476, both rebounding near key support.
Short-term operations may attempt to take small positions for a peak, but strict stop-loss control is necessary, and aggressive heavy positions are not advisable. The current market direction is still unclear; bearish strategies should only be attempted to prevent the risk of reverse amplification.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and caution is needed when entering; this is a personal opinion and for reference only.
